我国居民资产偏好与住房价格泡沫评价

发布时间：2018-01-10 22:11

本文关键词：我国居民资产偏好与住房价格泡沫评价　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自上世纪90年代实施房改政策以来,计划经济时期的福利分房制度逐渐被市场取代,房价也因此开始发挥着调节市场供求关系的基础性作用,然而,从我国房地产市场近二十年的发展状况来看,我国普通商品房价格基本保持着持续的快速上涨,其涨幅远远高于同期居民收入的增长,1998-2013年,我国普通商品房价格年平均上涨22.8.%,同期城镇居民年人均收入上涨9.6%,房价涨幅是居民人均收入的2.5倍。由此,本世纪初,在我国引发了一场有关房价泡沫的讨论。绝大多数学者利用房价收入比的国际比较,经济泡沫模型等论证了我国房产泡沫的存在,并对房价泡沫的程度进行了测算。纵观现有有关房产泡沫讨论的文献来看,在合理房价的判定过程中,居民家庭资产选择偏好因素被完全忽略了。本文根据我国居民家庭资产选择中特殊的偏好关系,试图在引入居民家庭资产选择中房产偏好因素下,重新来讨论我国房价泡沫的存在性及其度量。全文共分为五章。第一章导论。介绍选题的背景及意义,主要研究内容及其基本结构,研究方法与创新。它是本文的概览。第二章文献综述。梳理了国内外在资产选择和房地产泡沫测度领域的相关学术研究成果。第三章基于资产偏好异质性的资产选择模型。当我们将家庭资产选择范围从纯金融资产扩展至实物资产时,资产的功能性差异便凸显出来,资产之间存在的功能性差异使得居民家庭在资产选择过程中并不完全遵循期望收益与风险的选择模型,它意味着居民家庭在资产选择过程中具有偏好异质性,也就是说,期望收益、风险和偏好共同构成居民家庭资产选择的决定因素,将偏好因素纳入资产选择的研究,建立相应的资产选择模型就成为本章研究的重点。由于偏好无法直接识别,这里我们选取具有代表性实物资产中的房产和金融资产中的股票资产,利用萨缪尔森提出的显示性偏好理论,在不同的价格水平下依据我国居民家庭对商品房资产和股票资产的选择组合推出无差异曲线方程,以此来解决资产选择偏好的识别问题。它是我们进一步研究的基础与关键环节。第四章我国房地产市场均衡分析。在以上理论模型基础上,利用我国居民家庭资产选择的无差异曲线推导出我国房地产市场的需求函数。同时,我们选取人均商品住房竣工面积q和平均房屋销售价格p运用面板模型构建房地产市场的供给函数。在市场出清条件下,令供给=需求可得到房地产市场的均衡价格p’。均衡房价不仅是我们判断房价合理性的基石,而且也是测度房价泡沫的基本依据。第五章我国房地产市场泡沫测度。依据上一章的均衡房价,在考虑随机冲击的前提下来确定我国房地产市场的合理价格,以此为判断标准,结合我国八个不同经济发展程度区域的35个典型城市房地产市场的相关数据,测算我国重要城市住房价格泡沫。并与现有研究的相关结论进行了比较分析。研究表明：我国房地产泡沫确实存在,且泡沫程度差别较大,一线经济发达城市存在较为严重的泡沫,西部等一些欠发达城市泡沫不明显。一线城市泡沫的产生要早于二线城市,二线城市大多发生在2010以后,而且一线城市泡沫度也明显高于二线城市,截止2010年大部分二线城市均产生了房价泡沫,我国的房价泡沫问题自此从局部转向全局。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of the housing reform policy since the last century in 90s, during the period of the planned economy of the welfare housing distribution system by the market gradually replaced, prices also began to play a fundamental role in the regulation of market supply and demand however, from the development of China's real estate market over the past twenty years, China's ordinary commercial housing prices basically maintained a rapid rising the rate is much higher than the income over the same period, the growth of residents, 1998-2013 years, China's ordinary commercial housing prices rose an average of 22.8.% years over the same period, per capita income of urban residents rose 9.6%, prices rose 2.5 times the people of all income. Thus, at the beginning of this century, in China triggered a discussion about the housing bubble most of the scholars. The housing price income ratio of the international comparison, the economic bubble model demonstrates that China's real estate bubble, and the housing bubble degree was calculated. With the existing Close the real estate bubble discussed in literature, in the process of determining reasonable price, completely ignores the preference factors of household assets. According to the preferences of family assets selection of Chinese residents in relation to the introduction of household assets in real estate choice preference factors, again to discuss the existence of China's housing bubble and measurement. The text is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is introduction. The background and significance of topics, the basic structure and the main research contents, research methods and innovation. It is the summary. The second chapter is the literature review. Combing the domestic and foreign assets and real estate bubble measure related to the field of academic research. The third chapter based on the assets preference heterogeneity of portfolio selection model. When we choose family assets ranging from pure financial assets extended to real assets, assets will highlight functional differences Out the functional differences between the household assets in the assets selection model in the process is not completely follow the expected return and risk, it means that households in assets with preference heterogeneity in the process, that is to say, the expected return, risk preference and constitute the determinants of household assets, will the preference factors included in the study of asset selection, the establishment of the corresponding portfolio selection model has become the focus of the study in this chapter. The preference can not be directly identified here, we select a representative of stock assets physical assets in real estate and financial assets, the revealed preference theory proposed by Samuelson, in the different price level launch selection based on the combination of China's households on housing assets and stock assets of the indifference curve equation, in order to solve the assets preference knowledge No problem. It is the foundation and the key link of our further research. The fourth chapter is the analysis of China's real estate market equilibrium. Based on the above theoretical model, the choice of our household assets no difference curve is deduced demand function of China's real estate market. At the same time, we selected the per capita housing completed in the area of Q and the average sales price of housing construction of P real estate market by using the panel model. The supply function of clearing in the market conditions, to supply = demand can be obtained in the real estate market equilibrium price. P 'equilibrium prices is not only we judge the price rationality foundation, and it is also the basis to measure the housing bubble. In the fifth chapter, the real estate market in China Bubble measure. Based on equilibrium prices in the previous chapter, considering the random shocks down to determine the reasonable price of the real estate market in China, as a criterion, combined with China's eight The relevant data of different degree of regional economic development of the 35 typical city real estate market, estimates China's important city housing price bubble. And with the relevant existing research conclusions are compared and analyzed. The study shows that China's real estate bubble does exist, and the bubble degree difference is large, there is a serious economic bubble line the developed city, western underdeveloped city bubble is not obvious. First-tier cities bubble earlier in the second tier city, second tier city mostly occurred in 2010, and first-tier cities bubble is significantly higher than the second tier cities, by the end of 2010, most of the second city had a housing bubble, the housing bubble in China since then from local to the overall.

【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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