我国城市住宅开发潜力动态综合评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 14:38

本文关键词：我国城市住宅开发潜力动态综合评价研究　出处：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经过几十年的发展，我国房地产行业在国民经济中的地位越来越重要，对国民经济的发展起到了巨大的推动作用。1998年住房制度改革以来，住宅房地产开发作为房地产开发的重要组成部分，也是城市开发和经营的一项重要内容。随着中国国民城市化不断向前推进和经济的快速发展，住宅开发的仍将在未来一段时间保持平稳增长。区域生产要素禀赋和国家政策的差异导致我国区域经济发展不平衡，这影响到了住宅房地产行业的均衡发展。各个城市之间房地产发展水平参差不齐且难以量化，这给政府的政策施行、企业的投资决策造成较大的困扰。如何评价城市的住宅开发潜力，成为一个必须面对的问题，这也是本文研究的背景。本文以城市竞争力理论、房地产经营与开发理论、城市经济相关理论为基础，全面考虑影响城市住宅开发潜力因素，参照指标体系建立的相关原则，确定初选的三层指标体系。然后通过相关性分析进行指标的二次筛选，从而确定最终指标体系。在评价体系构建过程中，首先以本评价的内容与特点为基础，，结合多指标评价的优缺点，将主成分分析法作为对每年的指标进行赋权、评分的评价方法；用主成分分析法对历年指标赋权，得到每年的静态评价得分。然后构造评价对象历年评价得分的动态评价矩阵，再运用主成分分析法对每年进行赋权，得到每个评价对象的最终综合得分；最后进行聚类分析，结合聚类结果和主成分分析结果进行实际分析。将构建的评价体系通过国内35个大中城市的2005—2011年的指标数据进行实证分析，自证评价体系的合理性，针对理论分析与实证分析的结论，给出了相关建议并进行研究展望。
[Abstract]:After decades of development, the real estate industry in China has become more and more important in the national economy, which has played a huge role in promoting the development of the national economy. In 1998, the housing system reform. As an important part of real estate development, residential real estate development is also an important part of urban development and management. Housing development will still maintain a steady growth in the future. Regional factor endowment and national policies lead to the imbalance of regional economic development in China. This affects the balanced development of residential real estate industry. The level of real estate development between cities is uneven and difficult to quantify, which gives the government policy implementation. How to evaluate the potential of urban housing development has become a problem that must be faced, which is the background of this paper. Based on the theories of urban competitiveness, real estate management and development, and urban economy, this paper comprehensively considers the factors affecting the development potential of urban housing, and makes reference to the relevant principles of the establishment of the index system. The three-layer index system of primary election is determined and the final index system is determined by quadratic screening of indicators through correlation analysis. In the process of constructing the evaluation system, based on the content and characteristics of the evaluation, combining the advantages and disadvantages of the multi-index evaluation, the principal component analysis method is used as the evaluation method to empower and score the annual indicators. The principal component analysis method is used to weight the indexes in the past years, and the static evaluation score is obtained. Then, the dynamic evaluation matrix is constructed, and then the principal component analysis method is used to weight each year. Get the final comprehensive score of each evaluation object; Finally, cluster analysis is carried out. Combining the clustering results and the principal component analysis results, the evaluation system is analyzed empirically through the 2005-2011 index data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China. According to the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper gives some suggestions and research prospects.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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