土地财政及地方公共支出与房价关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 18:14

本文关键词：土地财政及地方公共支出与房价关系实证研究　出处：《燕山大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来，我国经济高速发展，房地产市场也繁荣发展。政府从土地出让和相关税收中获得了巨大的财政收益，其出台的一系列优惠政策又间接促进了房地产投资市场的进一步扩大。一些经济相对发达、公共服务水平较高的城市，人们对房屋的需求急剧扩张，房价一路飙升。因此本文利用面板数据模型从定性和定量角度分析了土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响，实证部分则分别从全国和区域两个层面进行了研究，对结果进行分析，并以此为依据有针对性的提出政策建议，，引导房地产业健康发展。首先，阐述了土地财政的概念，分析土地出让价格与房价关系的四象限模型以及房地产税收资本化模型。随后阐述了Tiebout模型以及Oates、Hamilton和Fischel对该模型的扩展研究，并在此基础上建立模型，对公共品的资本化过程进行推导。其次，分析我国房地产业、土地财政和地方公共支出的基本现状，发现我国房地产价格、土地出让金、土地相关税收和地方公共支出均稳步上升且存在区域差异性。描述了土地财政及公共支出与房价的波动特征，两者均与房价存在正相关关系。再次，利用2002-2012年我国30个省市自治区的数据构建面板模型，分别从全国和区域两个层面上探讨了土地财政及地方公共支出对房价的影响，土地出让收入和地方公共支出始终与房价正相关，土地相关税收与房价负相关。最后，根据实证研究结果，并结合我国现阶段的实际情况，提出合理可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of our economy and the prosperity of the real estate market, the government has obtained huge financial benefits from land sales and related taxes. The introduction of a series of preferential policies has indirectly promoted the further expansion of the real estate investment market. In some cities with relatively developed economy and high level of public services, the demand for housing has expanded sharply. Therefore, this paper uses panel data model to analyze the impact of land finance and local public expenditure on housing prices from the qualitative and quantitative perspective. The empirical part has carried on the research from the national and the regional level separately, carries on the analysis to the result, and based on this proposed the policy suggestion, guides the real estate industry to develop healthily. Firstly, the paper expounds the concept of land finance, analyzes the four-quadrant model of the relationship between the price of land transfer and house price and the capitalization model of real estate tax, and then expounds the Tiebout model and Oates. Hamilton and Fischel study the extension of the model and establish a model on the basis of which the capitalization process of public goods is deduced. Secondly, it analyzes the basic situation of real estate, land finance and local public expenditure in China, and finds out the real estate price and land transfer fee. Land related taxes and local public expenditure are rising steadily and there are regional differences, describing the fluctuating characteristics of land finance, public expenditure and house prices, both of which are positively correlated with housing prices. Thirdly, using the data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions from 2002 to 2012 to build a panel model, the paper discusses the impact of land finance and local public expenditure on housing prices from the national and regional levels. Land transfer income and local public expenditure are always positively correlated with house prices, and land related taxes are negatively correlated with housing prices. Finally, according to the results of empirical research and the actual situation of our country at present, some reasonable and feasible policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F812.45;F301

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