金融危机传导视角下我国服务业的发展意义探究

发布时间：2018-01-16 10:09

本文关键词：金融危机传导视角下我国服务业的发展意义探究　出处：《财政部财政科学研究所》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：发端于美国房地产市场的次贷危机使得全球经济面临自1929年大萧条以来最大的一次危机。全球金融市场都品尝到了美国房地产市场种下的苦果。不仅如此,危机本身还影响到了实体经济的发展,各主要经济体失业率攀升,经济增长放缓甚至倒退,企业投资疲软甚至破产,居民消费量萎缩,严重阻碍全球经济的发展。本文从概述金融危机传染机制出发,详细阐述了危机传染的渠道,进而提出了在我国这个特殊经济体中危机传导的特殊性问题。作为世界上最重要的新兴经济体之一,中国经济连续多年的快速增长一直被众多学者所关注和研究,甚至有人提出了经济发展的“中国模式”。正是由于中国发展模式以及中国经济宏观调控的特殊性,金融风险在中国的传导具有一定的特殊性,表现为主要传导模式是贸易关联传导机制,继而通过说明出口结构和产业结构存在着稳定关系,引入对各产业部门的行业指数的实证研究,文章通过运用Granger因果检验分析了代表性行业收益率变化的特征,以此对我国产业链条的传导效应进行了检验。实证研究表明,在外来危机冲击下,我国服务业在传导中担当着特殊的角色。从产业结构的角度看,服务业既可以改善外贸依存度高的现状,也可以调节出口结构,并以此为切入点,分析了服务业在我国面对危机时维护国家经济安全的作用。最后对我国如何防范危机传导、以及发展服务业提出了理论化建议。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis, which began in the U.S. housing market, has left the global economy facing its biggest crisis since the Great Depression in 1929. Financial markets around the world have tasted the bitter consequences of the U.S. housing market. . The crisis itself also affected the development of the real economy, the major economies unemployment rate rose, economic growth slowed or even retrogression, weak business investment or even bankruptcy, consumer consumption shrinking. It is a serious obstacle to the development of the global economy. Based on an overview of the mechanism of financial crisis contagion, this paper expounds the channel of crisis contagion in detail, and then puts forward the particularity of crisis transmission in this special economy of our country. As one of the most important emerging economies in the world, the rapid growth of Chinese economy for many years has been concerned and studied by many scholars. Some people even put forward the "Chinese model" of economic development. It is precisely because of the particularity of China's development model and China's macroeconomic regulation and control that the transmission of financial risks in China has its own particularity. The main transmission mode is the trade linkage transmission mechanism. Then the empirical research on the industry index of various industrial sectors is introduced by explaining the stable relationship between export structure and industrial structure. By using Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the change of return rate of representative industries, and then tests the conduction effect of industrial chain in China. The empirical study shows that under the impact of external crisis. China's service industry plays a special role in the transmission. From the perspective of industrial structure, the service industry can not only improve the current situation of high dependence on foreign trade, but also adjust the export structure, and take this as the starting point. This paper analyzes the role of service industry in maintaining national economic security in the face of crisis, and finally puts forward some theoretical suggestions on how to prevent crisis transmission and how to develop service industry in China.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719

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