商业地产前期策划风险分析

发布时间：2018-01-20 04:26

本文关键词： 商业地产前期策划风险　出处：《吉林建筑大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国特色社会主义市场经济体制的逐步完善，国家经济水平的日益发展，房地产行业占有我国经济发展的重要地位。在国家宏观调控和拉动内需的政策指导下，，住宅地产逐渐降温，商业地产成为房地产开发商的投资热点。但是商业地产除了具有物业增值相对较快和后期运营可获取高额利润等优势之外，作为兼具商贸、地产和投资属性的复合型产业，它的运营环节较多且复杂，开发周期长，所面临的风险比其他地产类型更多，造成的损失更大。为保证项目获取更多利润防止项目失败，房地产商在开发过程中应当注重前期策划环节，为项目成功盈利制定从立项、实施到运营整套计划方案，并在前期策划过程中识别预期风险，客观准确的评价风险，为项目减小损失的几率增大项目盈利机会。我国房地产开发仅三十年时间，虽然商业地产投资持续升温，但是我国商业地产还处于经验较少，理论知识不够丰富的发展初级阶段。因此，本文从商业地产的理论研究入手，结合风险理论，根据我国商业地产现状对其所存在的风险进行识别，并研究层次分析法原理，通过matlab编写程序构建数学模型，将风险从文字描述升级为定量数据化，使决策者在决策过程中有准确、科学的决策依据。本文以长春市某商业地产项目为例，对项目进行风险分析，分析过程中结合专家评价法和数学模型，评价结果符合项目的实际情况，因此，在商业地产前期策划过中，本文可为项目的风险识别和评估提供科学的定性与定量分析。
[Abstract]:With the gradual improvement of the socialist market economy system with Chinese characteristics, the national economic level is developing day by day. The real estate industry occupies an important position in the economic development of our country. Under the guidance of the national macro-control and the policy of stimulating domestic demand, the residential real estate is gradually cooling down. Commercial real estate has become the investment hot spot of real estate developers. But commercial real estate has the advantages of relatively fast appreciation of property and high profits in late operation, which is a combination of commercial and commercial. Real estate and investment attribute of the composite industry, its operation links are more complex, long development cycle, facing more risks than other types of real estate. In order to ensure that the project gets more profits to prevent the project from failure, the real estate developer should pay attention to the pre-planning link in the process of development, and establish a project for the successful profit of the project. Implement the whole plan plan, identify the expected risk in the early planning process, evaluate the risk objectively and accurately, and increase the profit opportunity for the project to reduce the loss probability. China's real estate development only 30 years, although commercial real estate investment continues to heat up, but China's commercial real estate is still in a less experienced, theoretical knowledge is not rich enough in the development of the primary stage. This paper starts with the theoretical study of commercial real estate, combining with risk theory, according to the current situation of commercial real estate in China to identify the existing risks, and study the principle of Analytic hierarchy process. The mathematical model is constructed by matlab program, and the risk is upgraded from character description to quantitative data, which makes the decision maker have accurate and scientific decision basis in the decision-making process. This paper takes a commercial real estate project in Changchun as an example, carries on the risk analysis to the project, in the analysis process unifies the expert appraisal method and the mathematics model, the appraisal result conforms to the project actual situation, therefore. In the early planning of commercial real estate, this paper can provide scientific qualitative and quantitative analysis for project risk identification and evaluation.
【学位授予单位】：吉林建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F721

【共引文献】