房地产投资对制造业影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 14:50

本文关键词： 房地产制造业促进效应挤出效应非参数逐点回归　出处：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来房地产市场呈现迅猛发展的趋势,房地产行业的繁荣带动了钢材、水泥等上下游近百个产业的发展,对拉动制造业起着不可磨灭的作用,房地产企业也取得了巨大的利润。但与房地产形成鲜明对比的是我国的制造业,随着全球经济不景气的延续,制造业出口仍陷于困境之中。与此同时“人口红利”逐渐消失,劳动力成本不断提高,土地等要素价格的持续上涨,国内生产成本上涨的压力及国际出口竞争的压力导致制造企业的利润被无限压低,我国传统的制造业发展已经遇到了瓶颈。那么,我国的制造业困境是否与房地产有关?房地产市场的繁荣除了拉动制造业发展之外是否也对制造业产生了挤出效应?房地产对制造业的影响原理是什么? 为了回答以上问题,本文从理论和实证两个方面研究了房地产投资对制造业的影响。首先,借鉴前人的理论并运用逻辑分析法分析了房地产投资对制造业产生影响的原理,包括产业关联理论、托宾Q理论、金融加速理论及财富效应理论。其次,本文运用描述性统计方法对房地产及制造业的现状进行分析,发现我国房地产规模增大、金融化进程加快、投资收益较高及投机行为普遍,而制造业产能过剩、技术创新滞后、盈利能力弱化及主营业务萎缩。最后,本文搭建了房地产对制造业影响的面板非参数检验模型,分别对宏观面板数据、区域面板数据和行业面板数据进行了实证分析,并运用逐点回归的方法展示房地产对制造业影响的动态演化过程。本文的研究结论有：1.从房地产投资对制造业的影响上来看,分为促进效应和挤出效应。房地产投资通过产业关联效应、托宾Q效应与金融加速效应、财富效应对制造业产生促进效应；通过推高要素价格、资金挤出效应、妨碍技术进步和引发投机对制造业产生挤出效应。2.从宏观视角来看房地产投资对制造业有拉动作用,但拉动作用接近“临界值”。说明房地产投资对制造业的促进效应占主导地位,但促进效应逐渐减小,挤出效应逐渐增大。逐点回归图显示房地产投资对制造业的影响呈现出“倒U”型,房地产投资达到“门槛值”后,对制造业的拉动作用逐渐弱化并趋于零。3.东西部地区的房地产投资对制造业存在拉动作用,说明促进效应大于挤出效应,但中部地区有明显的挤出效应。由于东中西部产业构成、产品面向的市场、房地产市场发展等情况的不同,东中西部房地产投资对制造业的影响存在差异。4.房地产对不同的制造业产业的影响存在差异性。本文选取了金属产品制造业、化学工业、非金属矿物制品业这三个与房地产投资密切相关的制造业行业来进行检验,实证结果表明房地产均拉动了三者的发展,但动态影响图呈现不同的趋势。基于上述研究结论,本文提出以下政策建议：1.抑制房地产市场的非理性繁荣,挤出房地产市场投机者。尽快出台房地产税,完成不动产统一登记,针对不同的人群实施差异化房地产贷款利率。2.制定差别化房地产政策,增强房地产调控的针对性。应对不同城市的房地产分类施策、分城施策,避免全国范围内“一刀切”的房地产政策。3.引导金融回归实体经济,支持实体经济的发展。要大力发展与中小企业相对应的普惠金融体系,建立多层次的金融担保体系,加快推进中小企业信用担保政策,构建和完善资本市场体系。4.营造制造业发展的良性外部环境,促进制造业产业升级。应完善税收政策体系、增加对职业教育的资金投入、加强企业与科研机构之间的合作。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate market showed a trend of rapid development, the prosperity of the real estate industry led to the development of steel, cement and other downstream 100 industry, to stimulate manufacturing plays an indelible role, the real estate enterprises also made huge profits. But in contrast with the real estate is the manufacturing industry of our country and as a continuation of the global economic downturn, manufacturing exports are still in trouble. At the same time the "demographic dividend" gradually disappear, rising labor costs, rising land prices, rising domestic production costs of the pressure and the pressure of competition in international export manufacturing firm's profit is unlimited down, our manufacturing industry development the traditional Chinese has encountered a bottleneck. So, whether the plight of China's manufacturing industry and real estate related? The prosperity of the real estate market in addition to stimulating the development of manufacturing industry is to What is the effect of the manufacturing industry on the manufacturing industry?
In order to answer the above questions, this paper studies the impact of real estate investment in manufacturing industry from two aspects of theory and empirical research. Firstly, based on the previous theory and using the logical analysis of the principle of real estate investment impact on the manufacturing industry, including industry association theory, Tobin Q theory, financial accelerator theory and the theory of wealth effect secondly, this paper uses descriptive statistical method and the current situation of the real estate industry analysis, China's real estate financial scale increases, accelerated urbanization, higher investment income and speculative behavior in general, while the manufacturing industry overcapacity, technological innovation lag, weakening profitability and the main business contraction. Finally, this paper set up the impact of real estate on the manufacturing panel of the non parametric test model, respectively, on the macro panel data, panel data and Regional Panel Data and industry were analyzed, and the use of point back The method of return shows the dynamic evolution of the impact of real estate on the manufacturing industry.
The conclusions of this study are: 1. from the real estate investment impact on manufacturing point of view, to promote effect and crowding out effect. The real estate investment by industry association effect, Tobin's Q effect and the financial acceleration effect, wealth effect in promoting effect on the manufacturing industry; through higher factor prices, crowding out funds, hinder technological progress and speculation crowding out.2. from the macro perspective of real estate investment in manufacturing industry has a stimulating effect on the manufacturing industry, but the stimulating effect is close to "critical value". To promote the effect of real estate investment in manufacturing industry occupies the dominant position, but the effect decreases gradually, the crowding out effect increases gradually. By regression show the impact of real estate investment in manufacturing showing "inverted U" type, the real estate investment to reach the "threshold value", pulling effect on manufacturing industry gradually weakened and the East tends to zero.3. The real estate investment stimulating effect on the manufacturing industry, indicated that the promotion effect is greater than the crowding out effect, but the central region has significant crowding out effect. Because of the eastern and western industry, products for the market, the real estate market development situation is different, the eastern and Western real estate investment impact on the manufacturing sector there are significant differences in.4. real estate for different manufacturing industries are different. This paper chooses the metal product manufacturing industry, chemical industry, manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, with three real estate investment is closely related to the test, the empirical results show that the real estate are stimulating the development of the three, but the dynamic influence diagrams show different the trend.
Based on the above research conclusion, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: 1. inhibiting the irrational prosperity of the real estate market, out of the real estate market speculators. The introduction of real estate tax as soon as possible to complete the unified registration of immovable property, the implementation of differentiated real estate loan interest.2. for differentiated real estate policy for different groups of people, strengthen the regulation of real estate targeted. The real estate policy to deal with the classification of different city, city facilities strategy, avoid the nationwide "across the board" real estate policy.3. the financial return to the real economy, to support the real economy. We should vigorously develop small and medium-sized enterprises and corresponding to the inclusive financial system, establish a multi-level financial guarantee system speeding up, the SMEs credit guarantee policy, constructing and perfecting the capital market system to create a.4. development of the manufacturing industry benign external environment, promote industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry should improve the tax system. The policy system will increase funding for vocational education and strengthen cooperation between enterprises and scientific research institutions.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F424

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