基于期权博弈和风险偏好的房地产投资保障房的决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 01:41

本文关键词： 房地产保障性住房期权博弈风险偏好投资决策　出处：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：十二五期间，我国计划建设3600万套保障性住房，而中央财政资金压力巨大，无法持续发展。在国家严厉的宏观调控下，房地产企业投资保障房是一个重大的市场机遇，同时也是挑战。房地产投资保障性住房项目面临着国家宏观政策、市场风险、建设成本等诸多不确定性因素，其决策是一个极其复杂的过程。由于传统投资决策方法忽略了投资项目未来不确定性、信息不对称等因素，因此需要建立合理的房地产企业投资决策模型，使其充分考虑到这些不确定性、竞争性以及其自身的风险偏好等的影响，从而做出科学合理的决策。本文在传统投资决策方法的基础上，借鉴国内外的研究成果，以全方位的视角，分析了保障性住房项目的不确定性以及不完全竞争性，结合期权博弈和风险偏好理论，对房地产企业投资保障性住房进行了研究，建立了保障性住房投资决策体系。主要内容如下：（1）首先介绍了保障性住房的定义和种类，比较分析了保障性住房与普通商品住宅的特点，介绍了房地产企业参与保障性住房建设的盈利模式及发展趋势；然后分析了国家宏观政策、保障房建设市场以及保障性住房项目的发展；最后进行了房地产参与保障性住房市场的SWOT(优势、弱势、机会和威胁)分析。（2）结合投资保障性住房项目的特点，对房地产投资保障房进行了实物期权分析、博弈分析以及投资决策者的风险偏好分析，综合考虑了保障性住房项目、竞争者和房地产企业投资决策者的影响。（3）建立房地产投资保障性住房决策体系。明确保障性住房项目投资的基本问题，并对保障性住房投资决策中的不确定因素进行了定量研究，确定了参与人的价值函数、投资者的偏好函数。在期权博弈和风险偏好的理论基础上，建立房地产投资保障性住房的决策模型。（4）以湖南省长沙市梅溪湖西片保障性住房建设项目为背景，运用以上理论和方法，，对房地产企业A和B分别进行了投资决策分析，以此来证明模型的科学性和可行性，为其他房地产企业及政府投资机构的决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:During the 12th Five-Year Plan, China plans to build 36 million sets of affordable housing, but the central financial pressure is enormous, unable to sustain development. Under the state's strict macro-control. Real estate investment in indemnificatory apartment is a major market opportunity, but also a challenge. Real estate investment and indemnificatory housing projects are facing many uncertain factors such as national macro policy, market risk, construction cost and so on. Because the traditional investment decision method ignores the factors such as uncertainty of investment project future information asymmetry and so on it is necessary to establish a reasonable investment decision model for real estate enterprises. In order to make a scientific and reasonable decision, the influence of uncertainty, competition and its own risk preference can be fully taken into account. On the basis of the traditional investment decision-making method, this paper uses the domestic and foreign research results for reference, and analyzes the uncertainty and incomplete competitiveness of affordable housing projects from an all-round perspective. Combined with option game and risk preference theory, this paper studies the investment of affordable housing in real estate enterprises, and establishes a decision system of investment in affordable housing. The main contents are as follows: Firstly, it introduces the definition and types of the indemnificatory housing, compares the characteristics of the indemnificatory housing with the ordinary commercial housing, and introduces the profit model and development trend of the real estate enterprises participating in the construction of the supportable housing. Then analyzed the national macro policy, indemnificatory apartment construction market and the development of affordable housing projects; Finally, the SWOT (advantage, weakness, opportunity and threat) analysis of real estate participating in the indemnificatory housing market is carried out. Combined with the characteristics of investment housing projects, the real estate investment indemnificatory apartment analysis, game analysis and investment decision makers' risk preference analysis, comprehensive consideration of affordable housing projects. The influence of competitors and real estate investment decision makers. 3) establishing the decision-making system of real estate investment and indemnificatory housing, making clear the basic problems of the investment of supportable housing projects, and making a quantitative study on the uncertain factors in the decision-making of affordable housing investment. Based on the theory of option game and risk preference, the decision model of real estate investment indemnificatory housing is established. Based on the construction project of affordable housing in Meixi Lake, Changsha City, Hunan Province, the investment decision of real estate enterprises A and B is analyzed by using the above theories and methods. The model is proved to be scientific and feasible, which can be used as a reference for other real estate enterprises and government investment institutions.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224.32

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