中国锌消费变化驱动力分析研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 16:56

本文关键词： 锌驱动力主成分分析　出处：《中国金属通报》2016年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在分析2007-2015年中国锌消费数据及相关统计资料的基础上,采用定性和定量相结合的方法对中国锌消费市场近10年的变化驱动力进行分析并建立数学模型。由此得出:(1)9年中中国锌消费量增加了263万吨,锌消费行业主要主要集中在基础建设、房地产、汽车、家电等领域,但锌在个人消费领域的速度增长较快;(2)选择10项影响中国锌市场变化的经济指标建立驱动力模型,利用"主成分分析法"和"SPSS20.0"统计软件进行分析,分析表明影响中国锌消费变化的驱动力因子主要是人口因素和经济增长;(3)对锌消费变化中经济增长的驱动力做回归分析得出:中国GDP每增长1亿元,需要消费锌1千克;城镇化水平每提高一个百分点,需要增加锌消费量23.8万吨;(4)随着中国经济进入新常态,消费将成为中国经济的主要动力,将影响锌消费结构发生变化,锌行业需要研究消费者的需求,大力提升行业科技含量和产品附加值,提高锌行业经济效益。
[Abstract]:Based on the analysis of China's zinc consumption data and related statistical data from 2007 to 2015. This paper analyzes the driving force of the change of zinc consumption market in China in the past 10 years and establishes a mathematical model by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. It is concluded that the consumption of zinc in China has increased by 2.63 million tons in 9 years. Zinc consumption industry mainly focuses on infrastructure, real estate, automobile, home appliances and other fields, but zinc in the field of personal consumption has a rapid growth; The driving force model was established by selecting 10 economic indexes that influence the change of zinc market in China. The principal component analysis and SPSS20.0 software were used to analyze the model. The analysis shows that the main driving factors influencing the change of zinc consumption in China are population factors and economic growth. 3) regression analysis on the driving force of economic growth in the change of zinc consumption shows that for every 100 million yuan increase of GDP in China, 1 kg of zinc is needed; If the urbanization level is increased by one percentage point, the consumption of zinc needs to be increased by 238,000 tons. 4) as China's economy enters the new normal, consumption will become the main driving force of the Chinese economy, which will affect the change of zinc consumption structure. The zinc industry needs to study the consumer's demand. Vigorously promote industry science and technology content and product added value, improve the economic benefit of zinc industry.
【作者单位】：中国有色矿业集团有限公司投资部;
【分类号】：F426.32
【正文快照】： 中国自从2001年加入WTO开始经历了“黄金十年”增长,是全球化的最大受益者之一,中国在这期间大力开始基础设施建设并且成为世界工厂,在国内开展了全球历史上最大的投资热潮,成为许多大宗商品的最大消费市场,进而影响国际大宗商品的供求平衡和价格。研究世界第一大有色金属消费

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