中国房地产企业海外融资与宏观风险实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-14 14:41

本文关键词： 房地产企业海外融资债券VAR模型　出处：《对外经贸》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来以房地产公司为代表的中国企业在海外发行美元债券和票据融资的频率与额度屡创新高,引起了社会各界的广泛关注,目前房地产市场的走弱已成为中国经济下行的重大压力之一。从中、美两国的宏观经济视角建立基于利差、汇率和私人无担保外债的VAR模型,用定量手段分析出中国企业集中发行美元债券融资现象产生的原因在于前些年人民币兑美元的持续升值和较大的中美利差,并且揭示了这种融资模式在当前中美经济周期不同步的情况下潜在的货币错配风险。研究认为,中国房地产企业应当加强对宏观经济环境的研判能力,并据此调整自身负债结构以避免经营绩效的恶化,逐步降低杠杆率尤其是以美元计价的负债在企业负债中的比例。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Chinese enterprises, represented by real estate companies, have repeatedly set new highs in the frequency and amount of US dollar bond and paper financing issued overseas, which has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. The weakening of the real estate market has become one of the major pressures on China's economic downturn. From this point of view, the United States and the United States have established a VAR model based on spreads, exchange rates and private unsecured foreign debt. Quantitative analysis shows that the reasons for the phenomenon of concentrated issuance of US dollar bonds by Chinese enterprises lie in the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in previous years and the large spread between Chinese and US interest rates. It also reveals the potential currency mismatch risk in the current Sino-US business cycle. The study suggests that Chinese real estate companies should strengthen their ability to judge the macroeconomic environment. In order to avoid the deterioration of operating performance, the debt structure should be adjusted accordingly, and the leverage ratio, especially dollar-denominated liabilities, should be gradually reduced.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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