武汉市土地储备对房地产市场价格的影响分析

发布时间：2018-02-15 23:07

本文关键词： 土地储备武汉市价格灰色预测模型　出处：《华中师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地具有商品的属性,在市场上流通,在我国建国初期阶段,因为土地市场缺乏管理,土地资源浪费、多重供地、市场无序等现象并存。土地储备机制建立于这种背景之上,作为于土地市场,调整城市用地结构,保证城市土地需求,促进城市的发展。土地价格的飙升和房地产市场的火热也推动着对土地储备的研究进一步加深,在2012年11月8日在北京召开的中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上又一次地将土地储备工作提上桌面,因此研究土地储备对房地产市场的影响是具有现实性的意义的。土地储备制度实行之后,地价上涨和房地产市场火热的现象确有发生,因此作者以此为立脚点,试图探讨出二者之间存在的关系。本文以武汉市为研究对象,通过大量阅读国内外各位学者们对土地储备各方面的研究作品和论文,在土地储备的相关理论基础之上,研究土地储备是否对房地产市场发生影响,本文首先解释土地储备的运作模式,从土地的计划管理、土地的征收以及土地的储备方式这三个方面来分别阐述,在分析武汉市的经济发展和房地产市场情况之后,研究我国土地储备给土地市场带来了怎样的影响,从市场经济学的视角,研究城市土地供求关系,以出让方式的角度分析土地储备是怎样影响着地价,建立灰色预测模型预测未来土地储备量以供参考；接着分析土地储备制度建立以后武汉市土地市场的情况和房地产市场的情况,以探讨土地储备与房地产市场价格之间存在的关联,同时,选取代表土地储备的指标,用格兰杰因果关系检验法对土地储备和房价之间的关系进行定量分析。实证研究表明,二者之间不存在因果关系。本文在此研究结果的基础上,提出完善土地储备的建议以供政府参考。
[Abstract]:Land has the property of commodity and circulates in the market. In the early stage of the founding of the people's Republic of China, because of the lack of management of the land market, the waste of land resources, the multiple resupply of land, the disorder of market and so on, the land reserve mechanism is based on this background. As to the land market, adjusting the structure of urban land, ensuring the demand of urban land and promoting the development of the city, the soaring land price and the hot real estate market also promote the further study of the land reserve. At the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in Beijing in November 8th 2012, the land reserve work was put on the table again, so it is of realistic significance to study the impact of land reserve on the real estate market. After the implementation of the land reserve system, the phenomenon of land price rise and real estate market boom does occur, so the author takes it as a foothold and tries to find out the relationship between the two. This paper takes Wuhan City as the research object. Through reading a large number of domestic and foreign scholars on the land reserve in all aspects of research works and papers, on the basis of the relevant theory of land reserve, to study whether the land reserve has an impact on the real estate market, This paper first explains the operation mode of land reserve, from the three aspects of land planning management, land expropriation and land reserve mode, after analyzing the economic development and real estate market situation of Wuhan. This paper studies the influence of land reserve on land market in China, studies the relationship between supply and demand of urban land from the perspective of market economy, and analyzes how land reserve affects land price from the angle of transfer. The grey forecasting model is established to forecast the future land reserve for reference, and then the situation of the land market and the real estate market in Wuhan after the establishment of the land reserve system is analyzed. In order to explore the relationship between land reserve and real estate market price, and select the indicators representing land reserve, Granger causality test is used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between land reserve and house price. There is no causality between them. On the basis of the results of this study, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve land reserve for the reference of the government.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F301.2;F299.23

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