基于数学建模的房地产行业研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 14:24

本文关键词： 房地产组合预测模型灰色关联度协调度可持续发展　出处：《温州大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产行业作为国民经济的重要产业之一，是具有基础性和先导性的产业，它与人民生活密切相关。除了能直接推动经济增长外，其兴衰还关系到国民经济其他行业的发展。因此本文根据房地产行业自身的特点，针对住房供需量、房地产行业与国民经济其他行业关系、我国房地产行业发展态势、房地产行业可持续性等问题，建立了更加完善的房地产行业研究体系，逐步解决了以下问题：（1）针对住房需求问题，建立了单因素改进指数模型，并运用组合预测模型和干预分析模型进行住房需求量的预测，结果吻合较好。（2）依据住房分层供给体系建立住房供给量的数学模型，并计算出各收入群体的住房供给量，得到总住房供给量的预测值，并进行了相关情况分析。（3）构建了房地产行业与国民经济其他行业的灰色关联度模型，，并经过回归分析和相关系数分析得到了房地产业与国民经济其他行业的关系。（4）从房地产商开发意愿与居民购买实力和意愿两个系统构建了房地产业态势发展模型，通过定义房地产行业满足率，对两个子系统之间的协调关系进行了论证。（5）建立了基于协调度的可持续发展模型，构建了居民购买力评价系统与房价系统，综合分析了两个子系统的发展态势和两者间博弈态势。
[Abstract]:As one of the important industries of the national economy, the real estate industry is a basic and leading industry, which is closely related to the people's life. Therefore, according to the characteristics of real estate industry, according to the quantity of housing supply and demand, the relationship between real estate industry and other industries of national economy, the development trend of real estate industry in our country is also related to the development of other industries of national economy. The sustainability of the real estate industry and other issues, the establishment of a more perfect real estate industry research system, gradually solved the following problems:. 1) in order to solve the housing demand problem, a single factor improved index model is established, and the combined forecasting model and the intervention analysis model are used to forecast the housing demand. The results are in good agreement with each other. (2) the mathematical model of housing supply is established according to the housing stratified supply system, and the housing supply of each income group is calculated, the forecast value of the total housing supply is obtained, and the relevant situation is analyzed. The grey relational degree model of real estate industry and other industries of national economy is constructed, and the relationship between real estate industry and other industries of national economy is obtained by regression analysis and correlation coefficient analysis. 4) the development model of real estate industry situation is constructed from the two systems of real estate developers' development intention and residents' purchase strength and willingness. The coordination relationship between the two subsystems is demonstrated by defining the real estate industry satisfaction rate. 5) the sustainable development model based on coordination degree is established, and the evaluation system of purchasing power of residents and the house price system are constructed. The development situation of the two subsystems and the game situation between the two subsystems are analyzed synthetically.
【学位授予单位】：温州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224;O242.1

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