基于CGE模型的房地产行业波动分析

发布时间：2018-02-22 19:51

本文关键词： 房地产可计算一般均衡模型社会核算矩阵　出处：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来,房地产业在整个国民经济中一直被视为非常重要的支柱产业。房地产业和其他产业关联度高,它的发展能带动上下游多个产业的发展,房地产业一直是包括政府、企业、家庭在内各部门投资的热门领域。但在我国房地产业高速增长的过程中,过高的房价使普通家庭背上了沉重的负担。基于房地产业对国民经济各部门的广泛影响,本文采用可计算一般均衡模型对房地产行业的价格、供给及需求的相关波动进行量化分析。本文把国民经济各行业划分为9个部门,对房地产业的价格、供给和需求变化前后各部门和宏观经济相关指标的变化幅度进行考量,分析其对经济系统的影响作用。研究结果显示：第一,房地产价格上涨对我国除服务业以外的所有国民经济各行业的产出都具有带动作用,而房地产价格下跌则具有负面冲击作用；房地产价格的上涨可以有效促进我国经济增长,拉动GDP,增加投资,但同时也会引起通货膨胀,对就业、居民收入和消费、进出口都造成负面影响。第二,房地产供给增加对国民经济各部门都具有明显的带动作用,而房地产供给减少对各部门也具有明显的负面冲击。第三,房地产需求增加会普遍增加国民经济各个行业的产出水平,对采矿业和制造业的带动作用最大。房地产需求的减少则会对各行业的产出有抑制作用。但是房地产需求增加对各行业产出的带动作用明显大于当房地产需求减少时对各行业产出造成的负面影响。第四,房地产业的波动会对国民经济和人民生活产生广泛的影响。但是房地产业价格、供给和需求的增加和减少对国民经济和人民生活的影响并不是对称的。价格、供给和需求增长时所产生的影响作用普遍大于当它们减少时所带来的影响。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry has been regarded as a very important pillar industry in the whole national economy. The real estate industry is highly related to other industries. Its development can promote the development of many industries upstream and downstream. The real estate industry has always included the government. Enterprises, households and other sectors invest in hot areas. However, in the process of rapid growth of real estate in China, the excessive housing prices have placed heavy burdens on ordinary families. Based on the widespread impact of real estate on various sectors of the national economy, This paper uses computable general equilibrium model to quantitatively analyze the fluctuation of price, supply and demand in real estate industry. In this paper, every industry of national economy is divided into nine departments, and the price of real estate industry is analyzed. The magnitude of changes in sectoral and macroeconomic indicators before and after changes in supply and demand are considered, and their effects on economic systems are analyzed. The results show that:. First, the rise of real estate prices has a driving effect on the output of all sectors of the national economy except the service industry, while the decline of real estate prices has a negative impact; The rise of real estate prices can effectively promote economic growth, boost GDP, increase investment, but also lead to inflation, employment, household income, consumption, imports and exports have a negative impact. Second, the increase of real estate supply has a significant driving effect on all sectors of the national economy, and the decrease of real estate supply also has a significant negative impact on all sectors. Third, the increase in real estate demand will generally increase the output level of all sectors of the national economy. The decrease of real estate demand will restrain the output of each industry, but the increase of real estate demand will have more driving effect on the output of each industry than when the real estate demand decreases. The negative impact on the output of various industries. In 4th, the fluctuation of the real estate industry will have a wide influence on the national economy and the people's life. But the increase and decrease of the real estate price, supply and demand will not have a symmetrical effect on the national economy and the people's life. The effects of supply and demand growth are generally greater than when they decrease.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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