楼市调控背景下中国房价决定因素与对策研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 16:27

本文关键词： 政府调控面板数据月度数据　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2010年以来我国政府强化了对房地产市场的宏观调控，本文选取我国共计47个大中城市从2010年7月到2012年11月的房地产市场月度数据，建立了土地价格、住房成交套数、房地产开发投资额以及房地产开发资金银行贷款额对东部、中部和西部地区以及一线、二线、三线城市房价影响的面板数据模型。结果发现：不同区域以及不同发展程度的城市的住房成交套数在楼市调控期间均与房价呈负相关；地价对西部部地区和二线城市影响显著，，其土地成交价格与房价正相关，符合传统的高地价引发高房价的认知；东部中部西部地区以及一线三线城市的房地产开发投资额与房价正相关；从全国范围来看，通过加息抑制房企开发房地产的银行贷款额、增加房企还贷压力的措施对抑制房价效果比较明显，其中西部城市和三线城市这种现象更加明显。文章先对房价影响因素的区域差异性进行研究，探究了东部，中部，西部城市的房价影响因素的不同，然后又根据城市的发展程度不同探究了一线二线三线城市的房价影响因素的差异性，得出一线二线三线城市房价的影响因素特点，据此得出全文结论，并给出政策建议：坚持对房地产市场调控的政策不动摇，积极实行土地制度改革，政府需要进行财税体制改革，减少财政对土地的过度依赖，从而将地价控制在正常范围内，从而促进房地产价格的合理波动。降低土地财政引发的房价泡沫，实行稳健的货币政策抑制房价的过快增长，抑制投机性购房需求，积极扩大保障性住房供给，积极落实分类调控。
[Abstract]:Since 2010, our government has strengthened the macro-control of the real estate market. This paper selects the monthly data of the real estate market from July 2010 to November 2012 in 47 large and medium-sized cities in China, and establishes the land prices and housing transaction units. Real estate development investment and real estate development funds bank loans to the eastern, central and western regions as well as to the front and second lines, The panel data model of the influence of housing price in the third tier city. The results show that the number of housing transactions in different regions and different development levels are negatively correlated with the housing price during the period of property market regulation and control, and the land price has a significant impact on the western region and the second tier city. The land transaction price is positively correlated with the house price, which is in line with the traditional cognition that high land price leads to the high house price; the real estate development investment in the eastern central and western regions and the first-tier cities is positively related to the housing price; from a nationwide perspective, By increasing interest rate to restrain the bank loan amount of real estate development and increase the pressure of housing enterprises to repay the loan, the effect of restraining house price is obvious, especially in western cities and third-tier cities. Firstly, the paper studies the regional difference of the influencing factors of house price, and probes into the difference of the influencing factors of the housing price in the eastern, central and western cities. Then according to the different development degree of the city, the paper explores the difference of the influencing factors of the housing price in the second-tier and third-tier cities, and obtains the characteristics of the influencing factors of the housing prices of the second-tier and third-tier cities, and then draws the conclusion of the full text. Some policy suggestions are put forward: persisting in the policy of regulating and controlling the real estate market, actively carrying out the land system reform, and the government should carry out the reform of the fiscal and taxation system to reduce the excessive dependence of the finance on the land, so as to control the land price within the normal range. In order to promote reasonable fluctuations in real estate prices, reduce the price bubble caused by land finance, implement a prudent monetary policy to curb the excessive growth of house prices, curb speculative demand for housing purchases, and actively expand the supply of affordable housing. We will actively implement classified regulation and control.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【引证文献】