城镇化发展对住房消费需求的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 22:09

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：住房消费需求　出处：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国城镇化发展速度突飞猛进，成为当代中国社会发展最重大的主题之一。城镇化是一个由传统化农村社会向现代化城镇社会演变的历史发展过程，它是包含经济、政治、文化等多维度的社会概念，其中最重要最直观的表现就是人口向城镇的迁移和聚集。农村人口的转移不仅使得已有的城市设施完善、体系健全、规模扩容和结构优化，同时也使得一些新的中小城镇不断涌现和发展起来。当前我国城镇化快速发展，数量庞大的农村人口转移的集聚效能，使得关系到老百姓民生的住房问题再次成为关注的焦点。这无疑会促进大城市和中小城镇需要提供更多、更好的住房，住房消费需求的不断增加在相当长的时期内仍然是我国房地产市场的主旋律，也直接影响着住房市场新格局的形成。住房消费需求关系到住房市场的活跃度，，房地产业住宅市场的发展需要妥善解决好居民的住宅需求问题。住房消费需求受诸多因素的影响：国家层面的经济环境景气程度、城镇化水平和相关政策及优惠条件；住宅市场层面的土地资源的供给量、住房价格水平、保障性住房的投入比例等；居民家庭层面的工资收入水平、消费支出水平特别是住房消费支出倾向。从城镇化发展影响住房消费需求的角度研究城市内部住宅市场的发展路径，有助于城市房地产业科学发展，同时也成为统筹区域经济发展的重要视角。我国房地产业在城镇化加速发展的过程中，要顺应趋势正确把握以城镇住房建设为增长点的住房消费需求，合理统筹协调，以实现新时期城镇化与城市房地产业的健康协调发展。本文立足于十八大中央经济工作会议关于城镇化作为六项经济工作重点之一、有望成为推动中国经济发展最大动力之一的时代背景，研究中国城镇化的加速发展对我国城市房地产市场住房消费需求产生的重要影响。在国民经济快速发展的中国，在国际国内格局日益变化的今天，住房问题和城镇化发展成为时代的主旋律，国家发展以及人们安居乐业的头等大事。实现农村迁移人群市民化、保证居民安居乐业、提高农民生活水平、打破城乡经济二元化结构，成为我国农村和城市全面健康和谐发展的最佳途径。基于此问题，文章采用理论分析和实证分析相结合，通过时间序列数据样本采用DEA方法证实它们之间的关联度；再搭建回归模型，得出影响系数的具体数值，全面系统地研究加速推进城镇化对我国城市住房消费需求的具体影响。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of urbanization in China has become one of the most important themes in the development of contemporary Chinese society. Urbanization is a historical development process from a traditional rural society to a modern urban society, which includes economy and politics. The most important and intuitionistic expression of the multi-dimensional social concept such as culture is the migration and agglomeration of population to the town. The transfer of rural population not only makes the existing urban facilities perfect, the system perfect, the scale enlarged and the structure optimized. At the same time, some new small and medium-sized towns continue to emerge and develop. At present, the rapid development of urbanization in our country and the agglomeration efficiency of a large number of rural population transfers make the housing problem related to the people's livelihood become the focus of attention again. This will undoubtedly promote the large cities and small and medium-sized cities and towns to provide more. Better housing and the increasing demand for housing consumption are still the main theme of the real estate market in China for a long time, and also directly affect the formation of a new pattern of housing market. The demand for housing consumption is related to the activity of the housing market. The development of the real estate housing market needs to properly solve the housing demand of the residents. The demand for housing consumption is affected by many factors: the prosperity of the economic environment at the national level. The level of urbanization and related policies and preferential conditions; the supply of land resources at the housing market level, the housing price level, the proportion of investment in affordable housing, etc.; the wage and income level of the residents at the household level, The level of consumption expenditure, especially the propensity of housing consumption expenditure, is helpful to the scientific development of urban real estate industry by studying the development path of urban internal housing market from the perspective of urbanization affecting housing consumption demand. At the same time, it has become an important angle of view for the overall development of regional economy. In the process of accelerating the development of urbanization, the real estate industry in our country should correctly grasp the demand of housing consumption, which takes urban housing construction as the growth point, and coordinate reasonably with the trend. In order to realize the healthy and harmonious development of urbanization and urban real estate in the new period. This paper is based on the background of the 18 Central Economic work Conference on urbanization as one of the six economic priorities, which is expected to become one of the greatest driving forces for China's economic development. This paper studies the important influence of the accelerated development of urbanization on the housing consumption demand in China's urban real estate market. With the rapid development of the national economy in China, the international and domestic patterns are changing day by day. Housing problems and urbanization have become the main theme of the times, national development and people living and working in peace and contentment of the top priority. The realization of rural migration of citizens, ensure that residents live and work in peace and contentment, improve the standard of living of farmers, Breaking the dual structure of urban and rural economy has become the best way for the overall healthy and harmonious development of rural and urban areas in China. Based on this problem, this paper combines theoretical analysis with empirical analysis. The correlation degree between them is verified by using DEA method in time series data samples, and then the regression model is built to obtain the specific value of the influence coefficient, and the specific impact of accelerating urbanization on the consumption demand of urban housing in China is studied in a comprehensive and systematic way.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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