二手住房市场保留价格形成机理研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 04:34

本文选题：保留价格　切入点：损失厌恶　出处：《清华大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国城镇化水平的快速提升使得城市住宅供给面临许多新挑战。从发展趋势看，城市建设用地供给有限、征地周期变长将制约新房供给；而人口结构老龄化将释放部分房源并进入二手房市场。过去几年大城市二手房交易量逐渐超过新房也说明了二手房市场已经成为城市商品住宅交易市场的主体。因此研究二手房市场具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文以保留价格作为切入点，重点研究了二手房市场买卖双方的购房决策过程，即买卖双方在将要购买（或出售）房屋时，他们的决策怎样受过去的“价格信号”及目前处境的影响？基于此，本文研究了买方的锚定效应及卖方的损失厌恶这两种认知偏误行为以及涉及卖方的“产权约束”效应对于各自决策的影响，并研究了这些效应如何影响住房宏观市场。本文章节基本遵循了如下分析框架：“现象描述—理论分析—模型建立—数值模拟—实证研究—结论”。研究采用了理论分析、数值模拟、实证分析并重的研究方法，以交易的异质性替代住房的异质性来看住房的价格，得到的主要结论和成果包括： 1.改进了相关模型，定量验证了二手房市场的认知偏误及产权约束对保留价格的影响。实证结果表明，买卖双方的认知偏误显著地影响了他们的保留价格，并最终影响了成交价格。而卖方未偿还的房贷也显著影响了成交价格。 2.在研究卖方行为时，本文将损失厌恶效应及首付效应的研究拓展到景气市场中。定量验证了即使在景气市场，，卖方的保留价格也受到了过去购买价格及现在未偿还贷款的影响。 3.在买卖双方行为研究成果基础上，本文用简单的博弈模型分析了买卖方的决策过程，定性分析了买卖双方的行为对市场价量关系的影响。并利用数值模拟方法模拟了当市场存在上升或者下降信号时市场价格及交易量的变化，发现了中国住房价格上升容易下降难的现象，称之为“价格棘轮效应”。本文基于中国住房景气市场丰富并拓展了对行为主体认知偏误及产权约束的研究，具有一定的理论意义。数值模拟结论为改进房地产指数提供了依据，而实证结论也能为政府、企业及广大买卖方提供参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the supply of urban housing is facing many new challenges. From the trend of development, the supply of land for urban construction is limited and the period of land requisition will restrict the supply of new houses. The aging of population structure will release some of the housing resources and enter the second-hand housing market. In the past few years, the volume of second-hand housing in big cities has gradually exceeded the new housing market, which also shows that the second-hand housing market has become the main part of the commercial housing market in cities. Therefore, the study of the second-hand housing market has a very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper focuses on the decision-making process of the buyers and sellers in the secondary housing market, that is, when the buyers and sellers are about to buy (or sell) the houses, How are their decisions affected by past "price signals" and their current situation? Based on this, this paper studies the influence of buyer's anchoring effect and seller's loss aversion on their decision making, and how these effects affect the macro market of housing. This chapter basically follows the following analytical framework: "phenomenon description-theoretical analysis-model building-numerical simulation-empirical research-conclusion". The research adopts the research methods of theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and empirical analysis. The price of housing is replaced by the heterogeneity of transaction. The main conclusions and results are as follows:. 1. The improved model is used to quantitatively verify the cognitive bias of second-hand housing market and the influence of property rights constraints on the reserve price. The empirical results show that the cognitive bias of buyers and sellers significantly affects their reserve price. And ultimately affected the transaction price, and the seller's outstanding mortgage also significantly affected the transaction price. 2. In studying seller's behavior, this paper extends the research of loss aversion effect and down payment effect to boom market. The seller's reserve price is also affected by past purchase prices and current outstanding loans. 3. Based on the research results of behavior of buyer and seller, this paper analyzes the decision-making process of buyer and seller by using a simple game model. The influence of the behavior of buyers and sellers on the relationship between market price and quantity is analyzed qualitatively, and the change of market price and trading volume is simulated by using numerical simulation method when there are rising or declining signals in the market. The phenomenon that China's housing prices are easy to rise and fall is called "price-ratchet effect". Based on the rich housing boom market in China, this paper expands the research on cognitive bias and property rights constraints of the behavior subject, which has certain theoretical significance. The numerical simulation results provide the basis for improving the real estate index. The empirical conclusions can also provide reference for the government, enterprises and buyers and sellers.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】