“全面二孩”、人口年龄结构变动对住房消费的影响

发布时间：2018-03-11 04:12

本文选题：“全面二孩”　切入点：少儿抚养比　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：当前中国人口结构正在改变,"少子化"和"老龄化"问题逐渐凸显。"全面二孩"是生育政策调整和完善的重要一步,对未来中国经济和社会将产生深远影响。在政府颁布"全面二孩"政策的当下,探讨政策带来的人口结构变化,以及人口结构变化对我国住房消费的影响,具有重要的现实意义。通过对2010年第六次全国人口普查数据和《中国统计年鉴》2001—2016年数据的整理和比较,研究表明,"全面二孩"政策的实施会使少儿抚养比显著提升,老龄化程度得到一定减轻,但不能改变人口迅速老龄化的大趋势。通过采用滞后一期变量,利用动态面板广义矩估计方法(GMM)估计人口年龄结构对住房消费的影响。估算结果表明:人口年龄结构因素不能解释近年来中国房价的上涨,但能部分解释住房面积水平的变化;少儿抚养比的提高会显著降低住房消费面积,老年抚养比对住房消费面积没有明显影响。由于"全面二孩"的实施会提高少儿抚养比,因而从长期来看该政策的实施有利于降低商品房消费水平。从人口结构角度出发,未来我国房价不再具备快速上涨的需求基础。政府应当积极采取措施避免房地产市场的疲软对经济发展产生不利影响。我们可以完善养老保险体系,增加老年人的消费能力,将商品服务结构逐步向老年市场转移,大力发展高新技术产业来应对老龄化对住房和经济市场的冲击。
[Abstract]:At present, the population structure of China is changing, and the problems of "minority children" and "aging" are becoming more and more prominent. "All-round second child" is an important step in the adjustment and improvement of fertility policy. It will have a profound impact on China's economy and society in the future. At the moment when the government promulgates the "comprehensive two-child" policy, it will explore the demographic changes brought about by the policy and the impact of the changes in the population structure on China's housing consumption. It is of great practical significance. Through the collation and comparison of the data of the 6th national census in 2010 and the data of the Statistical Yearbook of China from 2001 to 2016, the study shows that the implementation of the "all-around two-child" policy will significantly improve the child-rearing ratio. The degree of ageing is somewhat reduced, but it cannot change the general trend of rapid ageing of the population. The effect of population age structure on housing consumption is estimated by dynamic panel generalized moment estimation (GMMM). The results show that the age structure of population can not explain the rise of housing price in China in recent years, but it can partly explain the change of housing area level. The increase of child-rearing ratio will significantly reduce the housing consumption area, but the old-age dependency ratio will not significantly affect the housing consumption area. Because the implementation of "all-around two-child" will increase the child-rearing ratio, Therefore, in the long run, the implementation of this policy is conducive to reducing the level of consumption of commercial housing. In the future, China's housing prices will no longer have the basis for rapidly rising demand. The government should actively take measures to prevent the weakening of the real estate market from adversely affecting economic development. We can improve the pension insurance system and increase the spending power of the elderly. The structure of commodity and service should be gradually transferred to the aged market, and high-tech industries should be developed to cope with the impact of aging on housing and economic market.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;南京大学商学院;山东大学(威海)海洋学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“女性劳动参与、生育行为选择与人口红利:效应测度与政策含义”(批准号:71473128) 国家社会科学基金项目“生育政策调整、住户规模效应与中国家庭收入不平等研究”(批准号:16BJL041) 博士后特别资助项目“女性劳动参与、生育行为选择与经济增长”(批准号:2016T90435)
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.23

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