北京市保障性住房制度与中低收入家庭安居问题的数量分析

发布时间：2018-03-14 05:46

本文选题：保障性住房　切入点：中低收入家庭　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着经济体制的改革,住房分配制度经历了由住房公共福利分配模式,单一的货币化分房模式,向商品化住房供应制度的转变。经济发展为房地产行业提供了重要发展契机。市场经济作用下房地产市场的繁荣使住房供给数量、房屋质量、配套标准等指标稳步提高,但同时也伴随着住房价格快速上涨,商品房售价最高记录被不断刷新。北京从2007年起房价一路走高,在高房价面前,中低收入居民家庭住房条件无力改善、基本住房需求无法得到满足。为此,关于保障性住房制度与中低收入家庭安居问题的研究,不仅非常急迫,具有重要的现实意义,同时也有显著的理论和学术价值。本文针对北京市保障性住房制度特点,把数量分析方法应用到对保障性住房制度问题的研究,并提出了针对保障房准入标准、保障规模、资金需求和退出机制等保障房主要制度环节的一套测算方法体系。本文的主要工作为：首先,提出了保障房准入标准的测算方法。构建比较静态分析模型作为全文理论研究基础。提出两种测算保障房准入标准的方法,一是在政府给定保障规模情况下,基于收入分布函数拟合方法测算准入标准：二是从商品房市场价格出发,基于房价收入配比公式方法测算准入标准。结合收入分布函数拟合方法,在既定的保障规模下测算廉租住房、经济适用房、限价商品房准入标准线,并与现行的准入标准和制度保障规模做对比分析。以廉租房为例,当准入标准调整后计算政策效应差异性并进行政策模拟。其次,对保障房制度保障规模进行测算。对于保障规模赋予两种角度的解读,一是制度保障规模,即收入水平低于廉租住房、经济适用房、限价商品房制度准入标准的中低收入居民人数,并对“十二五”期间保障规模的变化趋势进行预测；另一种是对实际保障房需求总量的计算,即按照实际商品房价格和居民实际收入水平计算的无力购买商品房居民的人数,这部分居民需要政府为其提供住房保障,以及对居民可以承受商品房价格区间的测算。对保障房体系和商品房市场间的夹心层群体规模进行测算,提出保障房体系内夹心层群体问题与群体规模计算方法。再次,对保障房资金总量的测算。通过对保障房资金需求总量目标的任务分解,先依据保障房制度规则,分别构建了廉租住房、经济适用房和限价商品房的资金需求测算模型,而后汇总成为北京市保障房资金需求总量模型。并利用相关统计数据进行了实证分析。归纳了保障房资金供给渠道类型,用博弈论方法证明社会资本参与保障房建设的可行性。最后,提出保障房退出机制设计。在住房过滤理论、住房供求关系与住房需求理论、居民收入的住房消费比例与需要层次理论的基础上,本文提出了梯度补贴动态退出机制模型。针对夹心层群体问题,提出了存在夹心层群体时的保障房退出机制构想。
[Abstract]:Along with the reform of economic system, the housing distribution system experienced by the mode of public welfare housing distribution, housing subsidies single mode, change to the commercial housing supply system. Economic development provides an important opportunity for the development of the real estate industry. The real estate market economic boom so that the supply of housing quantity, the quality of housing. Supporting standard has improved steadily, but also accompanied by the rapid rise in housing prices, the price of real estate, the highest record is constantly refreshed. From 2007 onwards Beijing high prices, in the face of high prices, low-income households to improve housing conditions, the basic housing needs can not be satisfied. Therefore, the research on the protection of the housing system and the housing problems of low-income families, not only very urgent, has important practical significance, but also has significant theoretical and academic value.
According to the Beijing city affordable housing system, the quantitative analysis method is applied to the study of the affordable housing system, and put forward for low-income housing access standards, security scale, capital demand and exit mechanism of low-income housing system links a main method system.
The main work of this article is as follows:
First, put forward the calculation method of low-income housing access standards. Construction of comparative static analysis model as the basis of the theoretical research. This paper proposed two methods to measure the low-income housing access standards, the government is in a given security scale under the condition of income distribution function fitting method based on measured admittance standard: two from the point of view of the real estate market price calculation the admittance standard of housing price to income ratio formula method based on function fitting method. According to the distribution of income, in the established security scale estimates of low rent housing, affordable housing, price of commercial housing access standards, and compared with the current access standards and system security in low rent housing scale. For example, when the access standard calculated after adjustment effect of policy differences and policy simulation.
Secondly, we calculate the low-income housing guarantee scale. For the interpretation of guarantee scale given two angles, one is the institutional guarantee scale, the income level is lower than the low rent housing, affordable housing, the number of low-income residents affordable housing system access standards, and to predict the trend of "12th Five-Year" during the period of guarantee scale the other one is to calculate; the real demand of the total actual security, number is calculated according to the actual commercial housing prices and the actual income level of residents can not afford to buy housing residents, the residents need the government to provide housing security, and the measurement of residents can withstand commercial housing price range. For low-income housing system and the real estate market between the sandwich group size calculation, calculation of sandwich group and population size of low-income housing system.
Again, the estimates of the total capital of low-income housing for low-income housing funds. Through the total demand of target task decomposition, according to low-income housing rules were constructed, low rent housing, affordable housing funds demand model and the price of commercial housing, and then summarized to the model of Beijing City low-income housing funds and the total demand. The empirical analysis by using relevant statistical data. Summarizes the low-income housing fund supply channel type, proof of social capital to participate in the feasibility of the construction of low-income housing with game theory.
Finally, the low-income housing exit mechanism design. In the housing filtering theory, the theory of the relationship between supply and demand of housing and housing demand, the income of the residents of housing consumption ratio and the hierarchy of needs theory basis, this paper put forward the dynamic gradient subsidies exit mechanism model. Aiming at the problem of sandwich group, puts forward the existing sandwich layer groups of low-income housing exit the mechanism of vision.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F299.23

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