湖南省商品房价格影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 11:44

本文选题：湖南省商品房价格　切入点：影响因素　出处：《中南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：近年来,我国国民经济快速发展,城市商品房建设步伐逐步加快,居民居住条件有了很大改善。然而,居高不下的房价问题开始成为社会普遍关注的问题。为了控制不断上涨的房价,我国先后出台了一系列的宏观调控政策,但是总体效果不理想。当前的学者对北上广等一线城市和发达省份研究较多,而对中部等不发达地区研究较少。湖南省作为中部地区典型的省份,研究湖南省商品房价格影响因素,有利于湖南省商品房市场健康稳定、可持续发展,也为国家制定宏观调控政策提供借鉴。本文首先在文献分析的基础上,对影响商品房价格的因素进行取舍、发现。其次,运用Pearson、Kendall、Spearman等方法进行相关分析,得出影响湖南省商品房价格的主要因素是货币供应量,然后是城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、固定资产投资额、地区生产总值、房地产开发投资额、人民币实际有效汇率、商品房施工面积和同业拆借加权平均利率,而居民消费价格指数与湖南省商品房价格相关性很小。最后,通过建立多元回归模型和单位根检验、VAR模型、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法研究。结果发现,湖南省生产总值、货币供应量、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、房地产开发投资额、商品房施工面积与湖南省商品房价格都呈显著正相关,影响系数分别为0.313、0.678、0.2713、0.148、0.223,其中货币供应量影响最为显著。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in recent years, with the rapid development of China's national economy, the construction of urban commercial housing has been accelerated step by step, and the living conditions of residents have been greatly improved. The problem of high housing prices has become a widespread concern in society. In order to control the rising housing prices, China has successively introduced a series of macro-control policies. However, the overall effect is not satisfactory. Current scholars have studied more first-tier cities and developed provinces such as North China and Guangzhou, while less research has been done on underdeveloped areas such as the central region. Hunan Province is a typical province in the central region. The study of the influencing factors of the commodity housing price in Hunan Province is beneficial to the healthy and stable development of the commercial housing market in Hunan Province, and also provides a reference for the government to formulate macro-control policies. On the basis of literature analysis, this paper makes a choice and finds out the factors that affect the price of commercial housing. Secondly, by using Pearsonian Kendallan Spearman and other methods, the author concludes that the main factor affecting the price of commercial housing in Hunan Province is money supply. Then there are the per capita disposable income of urban households, the investment in fixed assets, the regional gross domestic product, the investment in real estate development, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the construction area of commercial housing and the weighted average interest rate of interbank borrowing. The correlation between consumer price index and commodity housing price in Hunan Province is very small. Finally, through the establishment of multiple regression model and unit root test VAR model, cointegration test, Granger causality test, The results show that the gross domestic product (GDP), money supply, per capita disposable income of urban households, real estate development investment, etc. There is a significant positive correlation between the construction area of commercial housing and the price of commercial housing in Hunan Province, and the influence coefficient is 0.3130.6780.27130.148n0.223. among them, the money supply is the most significant.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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