中国房地产价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 02:40

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：房地产供求　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业，与许多行业具有极强的关联性。合理的房地产价格是保持社会和谐和保障民生的关键。但是，中国房地产市场还不成熟，，存在价格持续高涨、市场供求结构不平衡、一二线城市房价涨幅过大等问题影响着我国房地产业的健康发展。因此，研究房地产价格影响因素尤为重要。国内外学者对房地产价格的研究很多，结果表明影响房地产价格的因素繁多且复杂。本文从经济学经典供求理论入手，依据房地产价格由供求价格机制决定的思路，将影响房地产价格的众多因素分为影响房地产需求、影响房地产供给和可以同时影响房地产需求和供给这三大类来研究，讨论房价变化的原因，找出影响房价的主要因素。本文首先介绍了房地产不同于其他商品所具有的的特点，描述了房地产需求和供给的特点。接着，分析了中国房地产价格现状，得出房地产价格持续上涨、具有区域性和泡沫严重的结论，总结出影响房地产需求、房地产供给和同时影响房地产需求和供给的主要因素。然后，运用1998 2012年度数据对7个主要影响因素和房地产价格相关程度进行灰色关联分析和因子分析，灰色关联分析结果表明供给层面的变量与房地产价格相关性最大，土地财政问题是中国高房价的根源，可通过对存量房征收保有税来改善地方政府依赖土地财政现状。住宅竣工面积、人均可支配收入、GDP、货币供应量、房地产开发企业本年土地购置费用等与房地产价格密切相关，政府制定政策应从多层面入手。因子分子的结果将影响房地产价格的繁多变量分成了两个主要因子，2000 2006年和2009年受反应预期房地产市场状况的变量影响较大，2009年后房地产价格受现有房地产市场状况的变量影响较大，反映出现阶段市场刚需旺盛、国家限购等调控政策对投机需求有所抑制。最后，从调整房地产供求方面提出政策建议，房地产供给层面可通过制定房地产持有环节税收政策、农村集体所有制土地流转等改善地方政府依赖土地财政和垄断土地一级市场现状，加强治理土地市场来调整房地产供给结构；房地产需求层面可通过加大租赁性保障房建设缓解房地产刚需，建立住房信息制度来打击投机需求；可通过货币政策同时影响房地产需求和供给。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy and has a strong correlation with many industries. Reasonable real estate prices are the key to maintaining social harmony and ensuring the people's livelihood. However, the real estate market in China is not yet mature, and prices continue to rise. The unbalanced structure of market supply and demand and the excessive increase of house prices in the first and second tier cities affect the healthy development of the real estate industry in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the influencing factors of real estate prices. Many scholars at home and abroad have studied the real estate prices. The results show that the factors affecting real estate prices are various and complex. This paper starts with the classical theory of supply and demand in economics, according to the idea that real estate prices are determined by the price mechanism of supply and demand. The factors that affect real estate price are divided into three categories: real estate demand, real estate supply and real estate demand and supply. The paper discusses the reasons of house price change and finds out the main factors that affect real estate price. This paper first introduces the characteristics of real estate different from other commodities, describes the characteristics of real estate demand and supply. Then, it analyzes the current situation of real estate prices in China, and draws the conclusion that real estate prices continue to rise. With the conclusion of regional and bubble severity, the main factors affecting real estate demand, real estate supply and both real estate demand and supply are summarized. The grey correlation analysis and factor analysis of the seven main influencing factors and the correlation degree of real estate price are carried out with the data of 1998 and 2012. The results of grey correlation analysis show that the variables in the supply level are the most relevant to the real estate price. The land finance problem is the root cause of China's high house prices. It can improve the local governments' dependence on land finance by levying a retention tax on the stock of housing. Housing completed area, per capita disposable income of GDPs, money supply, The land acquisition costs of real estate development enterprises this year are closely related to the real estate prices. The result of the factors is divided into two main factors, 2000 and 2009, which are greatly affected by the expected real estate market conditions in 2006 and 2009. Post-real estate prices are greatly affected by the variables of the existing real estate market conditions, Reflecting the exuberant rigid demand in the market at the emergence stage, the regulation and control policies such as the national purchase restriction restrain the speculative demand to some extent. Finally, from the aspect of adjusting the supply and demand of real estate, some policy suggestions are put forward. The rural collective ownership land circulation and so on improves the local government to rely on the land finance and the monopoly land primary market present situation, strengthens the governance land market to adjust the real estate supply structure; The demand level of real estate can alleviate the rigid demand of real estate by increasing the construction of leasehold indemnificatory apartment, establish housing information system to combat speculative demand, and influence the demand and supply of real estate at the same time through monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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