中日房地产价格影响因素的比较研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 18:35

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：中日比较　出处：《现代日本经济》2014年01期

【摘要】：本文以住宅房价的生命周期模型为基础,对中日两国房地产价格的长短期影响因素进行比较研究。通过构建协整和误差修正模型得出的主要结论为:家庭收入对中日两国的房地产价格都具有关键性的影响作用。长期来看,我国住宅房价的长期收入弹性低于日本,导致这一现象的一个重要原因是两国房地产供给的价格弹性不同。短期来看,中日两国房地产价格的短期波动都具有显著的适应性预期效应,但日本表现为正向影响,而我国表现为负向影响,这表明日本住宅地价短期波动的需求方影响因素更多地表现为投资性需求,而我国住宅房价短期波动的需求方影响因素更多地表现为消费性需求。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the life cycle model of housing price. This paper makes a comparative study on the influence factors of real estate prices between China and Japan in the long and short term. The main conclusion is that household income plays a key role in the real estate prices of China and Japan through the construction of cointegration and error correction model. In the long run, The long-term income elasticity of housing prices in China is lower than that in Japan. One important reason for this phenomenon is that the price elasticity of the supply of real estate in the two countries is different. In the short term, The short-term volatility of real estate prices in China and Japan has a significant adaptive expected effect, but Japan has a positive effect, while China has a negative impact. This indicates that the demand-side influence factors of short-term fluctuation of residential land price in Japan are more investment demand, while the demand-side factors of short-term fluctuation of housing price in China are more consumer demand.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学统计与数学学院;吉林大学商学院;吉林大学审计处;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“开放经济框架下我国经济周期波动与产业结构调整的关系研究”(10YJC790091);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于合成指数对我国通货膨胀影响因素及传导机制的动态分析”(12YJC790184) 国家统计局全国统计科学研究重点项目“完善我国房屋销售价格指数的理论与方法研究”(2010LB09)
【分类号】：F293.3;F224

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