虚拟经济视角下我国房地产价格的驱动因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 17:37

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：虚拟经济　出处：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化和金融自由化的背景下,当前世界经济的虚拟化程度不断提高,虚拟经济规模已经超越了传统的实体经济规模。房地产的虚拟性随着虚拟经济的发展日渐增强,实体经济基本面因素对房地产价格的解释程度降低。目前,我国在国际金融体系的运作程度加深,经济的虚拟化程度也随着金融市场的繁荣与金融工具的创新而提高,房地产已成为与股票、基金等金融资产同样重要的投资产品。房地产作为我国宏观经济的重要推动力量,其价格的合理与稳定影响着经济的发展和社会的和谐。因此,从现代市场经济中虚拟经济的角度出发,研究房地产的虚拟特性,并对当前房地产价格的驱动因素做出更为科学合理的解释,具有重大的现实意义。本文基于虚拟经济这一特殊视角,从理论和实证两方面对我国房地产价格的驱动因素进行了研究。首先,在阐述虚拟经济资本化定价本质的基础上,对房地产的虚拟特性进行研究；其次,通过资产定价模型、理性预期、金融加速器理论等对房地产价格的驱动因素进行定性分析,归纳出货币供应量、利率水平、银行信贷、股票、汇率等关键驱动因素；在实证方面,构建向量自回归模型(VAR)选取广义货币供应量、金融机构一至三年期的贷款利率、房地产资金来源的国内贷款、上证A股综合指数、人民币实际有效汇率指数作为解释变量的指标,全国商品房销售价格作为被解释变量的指标,采用2005年第3季度到2013年第4季度的季度数据,应用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解,对关键驱动因素进行相应的检验和分析。实证结果表明,各关键驱动因素对房地产价格均存在不同程度的影响,其中广义货币供应量、房地产资金来源的国内贷款、上证A股综合指数、人民币实际有效汇率对全国商品房销售价格的影响以以正效应为主,而金融机构一至三年期的贷款利率对全国商品房销售价格产生负效应；广义货币供应量、房地产资金来源的国内贷款、上证A股综合指数对房地产价格的贡献度较大,而金融机构一至三年期的贷款利率和人民币实际有效汇率对全国商品房销售价格的贡献度较小。最后,针对理论和实证结果,本文从适应虚拟经济发展的角度,提出政策思考：兼顾房地产虚实二重性,政府保障与市场供应相结合；构建信息服务平台,有效管理房地产价格预期；强化金融监管,维护房地产金融稳定；扩大并规范投资渠道,谨慎发展金融创新。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization and financial liberalization, the virtualization degree of the world economy is increasing, and the scale of virtual economy has exceeded the traditional real economy scale. The fictitious nature of real estate is increasing with the development of virtual economy. At present, the degree of operation of our country in the international financial system has deepened, and the degree of economic virtualization has also increased with the prosperity of financial markets and the innovation of financial instruments. Real estate has become the same important investment product as stock, fund and other financial assets. As an important driving force of macro economy in China, the reasonable and stable price of real estate affects the development of economy and the harmony of society. From the point of view of virtual economy in modern market economy, this paper studies the virtual characteristics of real estate, and makes a more scientific and reasonable explanation of the driving factors of real estate price at present. Based on the special perspective of virtual economy, this paper studies the driving factors of real estate price in China from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Firstly, on the basis of expounding the essence of capitalized pricing of virtual economy, Secondly, through the qualitative analysis of the driving factors of real estate price, such as asset pricing model, rational expectation, financial accelerator theory and so on, we can conclude the money supply, interest rate level, bank credit, etc. In the empirical aspect, we construct a vector autoregressive model (VARA) to select the broad money supply, the loan interest rate of financial institutions for one to three years, the domestic loans from real estate funds, the composite index of A shares of Shanghai Stock Exchange. The real effective exchange rate index of RMB is taken as the indicator of the explanatory variable, and the national commercial housing sales price is taken as the indicator of the explained variable, and the quarterly data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2013 are used. The ADF test is used to test and analyze the key drivers, such as Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The empirical results show that all the key drivers have different effects on real estate prices. Among them, the broad money supply, the domestic loans from real estate funds, the Shanghai Stock Exchange A composite index, the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the sales price of commercial housing in China are mainly positive effects. However, the loan interest rates of financial institutions for one to three years have a negative effect on the sales prices of commercial housing nationwide; the broad money supply, domestic loans from real estate funds, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A composite index have a greater contribution to real estate prices. However, the loan interest rate of financial institutions and the real effective exchange rate of RMB for one to three years make a small contribution to the sales price of commercial housing in China. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical results, this paper tries to adapt to the development of virtual economy. This paper puts forward some policy considerations: considering the duality of real estate, combining government guarantee with market supply, constructing information service platform, managing real estate price expectation effectively, strengthening financial supervision and maintaining financial stability of real estate; We will expand and standardize investment channels and prudently develop financial innovation.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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