房地产价格波动中直接调控政策的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 19:10

本文选题：公积金政策　切入点：住房保障政策　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：21世纪前,我国的房价基本保持长期缓慢增长的状态,新世纪之后,房价开始迅猛上涨,房地产泡沫的严重化对国家宏观经济造成了极为不利的影响。为了调控房地产价格的非理性上涨态势,我国相继采取了紧缩货币政策、财政政策、土地政策等措施,但收效甚微。政府出台了一系列直接调控政策,如限购条件政策、公积金政策、住房保障政策、调节首付比例政策来调控房地产市场。我国正处于经济转型的关键时期,房地产价格波动的原因及其复杂,但是不可置否,房地产直接调控政策对房地产价格的影响是不容忽视的,房地产直接调控政策对房地产价格波动具有重要影响。同时,我们发现,随着公积金政策、保障房、直接限购条件等直接调控政策的不断完善,政府对公积金贷款政策、限购条件政策、住房保障政策、首付比例等政策措施的倚重程度越来越高,客观上房地产直接调控政策对调节房价具有显著影响。故而,研究房地产直接调控政策对房地产价格波动的影响是极为必要的。在对已有相关文献进行了梳理和总结的基础上,本文详细研究了房地产直接调控政策对房地产价格波动的影响,进行了详实的理论研究和实证分析。本文首先对房地产价格波动与房地产直接调控政策相关概念、房地产市场发展现状、房地产直接调控政策的发展历程进行了梳理,继而阐述了房地产直接调控政策对房地产价格波动的理论影响机制,相继分析了公积金政策、限购条件政策、住房保障政策、首付比例政策对房地产价格波动的影响,结合实证结果研究了政策对房地产价格波动的多重影响,从供求关系、博弈论理论等多维度进行分析。实证部分利用28个大中城市2011年到2015年的月度数据进行实证研究,经分析可知不同城市之间存在较大差异,为了消除不同个体间存在遗漏变量和模型存在时间趋势对结果的影响,本篇论文的处理方法为将具有时间趋势的变量剔除掉时间效应再进行固定效应回归,来剔除时间效应的影响。最后对一线、二三线城市子样本分析回归结果,分别研究子样本的回归结果。通过以上实证分析,本文得出如下结论,实证检验了限购条件政策和公积金政策对房地产价格波动影响显著,政策收紧,房地产价格短期内呈现下降趋势,政策宽松,房地产价格短期内呈现上升趋势。对于一线城市子样本和二三线城市子样本而言,回归结果与总样本一致,也即公积金政策、限购条件政策对房地产价格波动影响显著。结合理论分析和实证研究,本文对我国未来房地产调控提出一些政策建议,如完善公积金制度、逐步减轻对限购条件政策的依赖、坚决打击和抑制投机性炒房等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Before twenty-first Century, China's housing prices remained slow growth state, after the new century, prices began rising rapidly, serious real estate bubble caused a very negative impact on the national macro economy. In order to non rational regulation of real estate prices rising trend, China has taken to tighten monetary policy, fiscal policy land, policy and other measures, but with little success. The government introduced a series of direct control policies, such as the purchase of the policy conditions, provident fund policy, housing security policy to control the real estate market regulation Shoufu ratio policy. Our country is in the key period of economic transformation, the reason of real estate price fluctuation and complex, but not no, direct impact of real estate control policies on the real estate price is ignored, direct real estate regulation policy has an important influence on the real estate price fluctuations. At the same time, we found that, With the provident fund policy, low-income housing, direct purchase conditions directly regulate the policy of continuous improvement, the government of the provident fund loans policy, the purchase of the policy conditions, housing security policy, payment policy measures rely on increasingly high degree of objective real estate direct regulation policies have a significant impact on the regulation of prices. Therefore, influence research direct real estate control policies on the real estate price fluctuation is extremely necessary. Based on the review and summary of the related literature, this paper studies the direct real estate control policies on the impact of real estate price fluctuation, the theoretical research and empirical analysis. This paper detailed on the real estate the price fluctuation and real estate control policies directly related concepts, the status quo of the development of the real estate market, the real estate development process of direct control policies were introduced, and then expounds the real estate Direct control policies on the real estate price fluctuation theory influence mechanism, have analyzed provident fund policy, the purchase of the policy conditions, housing security policy, payment policy impact on real estate price fluctuations, the research results of the multiple influences on price fluctuation of real estate policy combined with the game theory from the relationship between supply and demand, etc. the multi dimension analysis. The empirical part uses 28 large and medium-sized city in 2011 to 2015 monthly data for empirical research, through the analysis of the differences between the different city, in order to eliminate the existence of leakage model variables and influenced the time trend of the results among different individuals, processing method of this paper is to have the time trend variable weed out the time effect of fixed effects regression, to eliminate the influence of time effect. At the end of the line, two or three line city sub sample regression analysis results, divided Don't study sub sample regression results. Through the above empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions, empirical test of the impact of the purchase conditions and policy provident fund policy on real estate price volatility, policy tightening, real estate prices in the short term downward trend, policy easing, real estate prices in the short-term upward trend. For sub first-tier cities the two or three line of the city sample and sub samples, the regression results are consistent with the total sample, namely provident fund policy, the purchase of the impact conditions of policy on the real estate price fluctuation significantly. Combined with theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper the regulation of the real estate in the future and put forward some suggestions, such as perfecting the provident fund system, and gradually reduce dependence on the purchase of the conditions of policy, and resolutely curb speculative real policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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