货币政策对房地产市场区域异质性冲击效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 06:05

本文选题：货币政策传导机制　切入点：PVAR模型　出处：《贵州财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国房地产业发展迅速,并带动上下游产业发展,成为促进国家经济增长和就业的重要产业。然而,频频高涨的房价以及商品房空置率的攀升,使房地产业对社会和经济产生的负面效应不断显现,政府不遗余力采取措施确保房地产市场健康发展,但收效与预期之间经常偏离。在政府采用的政策组合中,货币政策就是使用的重要政策工具之一,货币政策的变动对房地产业的发展影响颇大,对调控房价起重要作用。由于中国区域经济发展差异较大,同一货币政策对不同地区房价的影响各不相同。因此,深入测度货币政策对区域房价的影响,是一个值得研究的重要问题。尽管已有文献使用多种方法从不同角度分析了货币政策对房价的影响,但未见分析货币政策对房价间接影响的文献,本文试图从这个视角对此进行深入研究。首先,通过理论分析货币政策在房地产市场的传导机制,发现货币政策可以通过房地产市场对房价产生间接影响;其次,为有效获取货币政策对房价的直接和间接区域异质性影响,经过比较,确定以住房市场存量-流量模型为基础,利用我国30个省份(西藏除外)2006年-2015年的季度数据,建立面板数据向量自回归模型(PVAR)进行实证研究;最后,根据实证分析结果,得出我国货币政策对不同地区房价的直接和间接影响,认为地方政府在央行货币政策的基础上调整时需要考虑多方面因素的影响,使房地产市场健康有序发展。本文的主要结论:1.利率变动对东、西部地区房价的直接影响较大,信贷变动对中部地区房价的直接影响较大。2.宽松的货币政策会间接导致各地区短期房价上涨,但对不同地区房地产市场的影响存在差异。3.紧缩的利率政策会间接导致各地区短期房价下降,但对不同地区房地产市场的影响也存在差异。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly and promoted the development of upstream and downstream industries, which has become an important industry to promote the national economic growth and employment.However, the rising housing prices and the rising vacancy rate of commercial housing have made the negative effects of the real estate industry on society and economy more and more obvious. The government spared no effort to take measures to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market.But there is often a deviation between results and expectations.In the policy combination adopted by the government, monetary policy is one of the important policy tools used. The change of monetary policy has a great influence on the development of real estate industry and plays an important role in controlling housing prices.As China's regional economic development is quite different, the same monetary policy has different effects on housing prices in different regions.Therefore, it is an important problem to measure the influence of monetary policy on regional house price.Although many methods have been used to analyze the influence of monetary policy on house price from different angles, there is no literature on the indirect influence of monetary policy on house price. This paper attempts to make a further study from this perspective.First, through the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the real estate market, it is found that monetary policy can indirectly affect house prices through the real estate market; secondly,In order to effectively obtain the direct and indirect regional heterogeneity of monetary policy on housing prices, based on the stock-flow model of housing market, the quarterly data of 30 provinces (excluding Tibet) from 2006 to 2015 are determined.Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy on housing prices in different regions of China are obtained.It is considered that local governments should consider the influence of many factors when adjusting the monetary policy of central bank so as to make the real estate market develop healthily and orderly.The main conclusion of this paper is: 1.The change of interest rate has a great direct influence on the house price in the east and west, and the change of credit has a great direct influence on the house price in the central region.Loose monetary policy will indirectly lead to short-term housing price increases in all regions, but the impact on the real estate market varies from region to region.Tightening interest rates will indirectly lead to a drop in short-term house prices across regions, but the impact on the property market varies from region to region.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

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