从金融周期看经济走势

发布时间：2018-04-03 17:48

本文选题：金融周期　切入点：经济周期　出处：《新金融》2015年03期

【摘要】：我们应该从金融周期而不是一般经济周期的角度来看待近期经济和市场的变化,这样才能更全面准确地把握中国经济和资本市场未来的走势。金融周期强调货币信用和房地产价格的相互作用,形成加速器影响,导致与一般经济周期不同的规律,其时间跨度可能超过经济周期的时间跨度,导致的宏观经济变量的波动幅度也会较大。中国已经开始进入金融周期的下半场,大宗商品、房地产将大概率出现调整,经济增长率面临下行压力,在"紧信用、松货币、宽财政"的政策组合下,只要不出现系统性风险,利率将会下降。未来资产负债表的调整将使实体经济较长时间疲弱,总体储蓄相对于实体投资增加,将提高投资者对金融资产的配置需求,对资本市场有利,但提升金融资产估值最终仍需靠经济体制改革带来的经济结构改善来加以支撑。
[Abstract]:We should look at the recent economic and market changes from the perspective of the financial cycle rather than the general economic cycle so that we can more fully and accurately understand the future trend of China's economy and capital markets.The financial cycle emphasizes the interaction between monetary credit and real estate prices, forming an accelerator effect, which leads to a different rule from the ordinary economic cycle, whose time span may exceed the time span of the economic cycle.The resulting macroeconomic variables will also fluctuate greatly.China has begun to enter the second half of the financial cycle, with a large probability of readjustment of commodities and real estate. The economic growth rate is under downward pressure under the policy mix of "tight credit, loose currency, and broad finance."As long as there is no systemic risk, interest rates will fall.Future balance-sheet adjustments will lead to a prolonged period of weakness in the real economy, with overall savings rising relative to real investment, increasing investor demand for the allocation of financial assets and benefiting the capital markets.But raising the valuation of financial assets will ultimately have to be underpinned by structural improvements in the economy brought about by economic reform.
【作者单位】：中信证券;
【分类号】：F832;F124

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