产权约束对景气市场住房报价的影响——基于Stein模型的改进与数值模拟

发布时间：2018-04-09 11:32

本文选题：产权约束　切入点：搬迁阻滞　出处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2014年05期

【摘要】：为了研究景气市场下,产权约束对住房报价的影响,该文采用理论分析和数值模拟的方法,通过引入搬迁阻滞系数来改进Stein模型,再利用Matlab对市场价格变动下新增的住房需求进行模拟。结果表明:当首付比增加到0.3时,价格的上升不会释放过多的新增需求;而当首付比降到0.1,价格的上升将迅速释放大量的住房需求;当全体居民的未偿还贷款较少时,价格上升释放的总需求将较大。由此验证了搬迁阻滞效应的存在使得居民改善房屋面积呈"跳跃"状上升。这会导致即使在房地产市场处于上升的过程中,产权约束也会迫使改善住房条件的居民提高报价,从而推动价格更快上升,后续的进入者出于改善住房条件的目的也采取同样提高报价的策略,这样价格上升完成了一轮自我强化。
[Abstract]:In order to study the influence of property right constraint on housing quotation in prosperous market, this paper adopts the method of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to improve the Stein model by introducing relocation retardation coefficient.Then use Matlab to simulate the new housing demand under the market price change.The results show that when the down payment ratio increases to 0.3, the increase in price does not release too much new demand, while when the down payment ratio drops to 0.1, the rise in price releases a large amount of housing demand rapidly, and when the amount of outstanding loans for the entire population is low,Higher prices will release greater aggregate demand.Therefore, the existence of relocation block effect makes the improvement of housing area "jump".This can lead to property constraints forcing people who improve their housing conditions to raise prices, even as the property market is on the rise, thus pushing prices up even faster.Subsequent entrants also adopted the same strategy of raising prices to improve housing conditions, so the price rise completed a self-reinforcing round.
【作者单位】：贵州理工学院;清华大学建设管理系房地产研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(09&ZD042)
【分类号】：F299.23

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