限购政策对房价的调控有效吗

发布时间：2018-04-12 13:12

本文选题：房价调控 + 限购政策　；参考：《统计研究》2014年11期

【摘要】：本文利用38个已颁布房产限购政策的城市和17个未颁布限购政策的城市2008年第1季度至2013年第2季度的数据,在使用倾向得分对样本进行匹配的基础上对匹配后的样本进行倍差法估计,探讨了房地产限购政策对房价的调控效果。实证结果表明,限购政策具有良好的调控效果,有效地抑制了房价的上涨;限购政策具有一定的时滞性,随着时间的推移其效果越来越明显。为了进一步研究限购政策对"房价过高,上涨过快"的城市是否具有额外的调控作用,本文使用双重倍差法进行分析,发现限购政策对"房价上涨过快"的城市具有额外的调控效果,实现了抑制过度投机的政策初衷;但限购政策在"房价过高"城市的治理上并没有体现出额外的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:This paper uses data from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2013 in 38 cities that have issued a property purchase restriction policy and 17 cities that have not issued a property purchase restriction policy.On the basis of using tendency score to match the samples, the double difference method is used to estimate the matched samples, and the effect of the real estate purchase restriction policy on the housing price is discussed.The empirical results show that the limited purchase policy has a good regulatory effect and effectively inhibits the rise of house prices, and the limited purchase policy has a certain delay, and the effect becomes more and more obvious with the passage of time.In order to further study whether the purchase restriction policy has the additional regulation effect on the cities with "the house price is too high and rising too fast", this paper uses the double double difference method to analyze.It is found that the purchase restriction policy has an additional regulatory effect on the cities where house prices rise too fast, and realizes the original intention of restraining excessive speculation; however, the purchase restriction policy does not reflect the additional restraining effect on the governance of "excessively high house prices" cities.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院;中山大学管理学院;中山大学金融工程与风险管理研究中心;中国人民银行广州分行;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“房地产及其金融资产的定价与风险管理”(71231008) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(13wkpy28)的资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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