房地产开发的实物期权模型探究及参数分析

发布时间：2018-04-13 06:42

本文选题：房地产开发 + 实物期权　；参考：《华中科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：高度的不确定性使得房地产投资者将目光投向了更加合理的房地产开发决策和更科学的投资理论。将实物期权模型和方法引入房地产投资策略可以让投资者根据未来的不确定性做出相应的反应，具有理论和应用意义。本文在Quigg的实物期权的模型框架下，从成本固定的房地产开发活动入手，探讨了可应用于房地产开发的实物期权模型，进而详细分析探讨了Quigg成本可变的实物期权模型。深入分析了不同目标选择下的最优待开发建筑物规模的取值，本文通过最大化期权价值来获取最优开发建筑物规模，与Quigg仅通过最大化期权执行后的项目价值来获取最优建筑规模情形相比，期权价值更高。对最大化期权价值V而获取的最优开发建筑规模策略结合Quigg模型展开了参数分析，运用控制变量法探讨了各参数对模型结果的影响并为一些参数设定了合理的变动范围。结合对模型参数分析的内容，依据参数合理的变动范围，，进一步对各参数的估计做了探讨，给出了土地租金率及规模成本弹性的估计方法，并运用Hedonic实证模型估计了待开发建筑物价格，较好的将实际统计模型和数据应用到实物期权模型当中。本文研究和方法为房地产开发项目的投资决策提供了模型应用和可行的分析方法，有利于科学的决策房地产投资开发，具有一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:The high degree of uncertainty makes real estate investors focus on more reasonable real estate development decision and more scientific investment theory.It is of theoretical and practical significance to introduce real option model and method into real estate investment strategy to enable investors to make corresponding responses according to the uncertainty in the future.Based on the real option model of Quigg, this paper discusses the real option model which can be applied to real estate development from the fixed cost real estate development activity, and then analyzes the real option model with variable cost of Quigg in detail.In this paper, we deeply analyze the value of the optimal building size under different target selection, this paper obtains the optimal development building scale by maximizing the option value.The option value is higher than that in the case where Quigg only maximizes the project value after option execution to obtain the optimal construction scale.The optimal development construction scale strategy obtained by maximizing the value of option V is analyzed with the Quigg model. The influence of each parameter on the model results is discussed by using the control variable method and a reasonable range of variation for some parameters is set up.Combined with the content of model parameter analysis, according to the reasonable range of parameters, the estimation of each parameter is discussed, and the estimation method of land rent rate and scale cost elasticity is given.The Hedonic empirical model is used to estimate the price of buildings to be developed, and the actual statistical model and data are applied to the real option model.The research and method of this paper provide the model application and feasible analysis method for the investment decision of the real estate development project, which is beneficial to the scientific decision of the real estate investment and development, and has certain practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：O212.1

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