基于结构方程模型的住宅价格波动影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 11:39

本文选题：房价波动 + 市场供需　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：1998年以来，随着我国住房体制的改革，并伴随我国经济的高速增长，房价一路飙升，高涨的房价超出居民购买力，住房成为民众关注的焦点，也引起了政府的重视。在市场作用下，商品价格的高低一般受供求关系决定，房价的高涨与房地产市场供求有着密不可分的关系，影响市场供求的因素进而会影响到房价。研究住宅价格波动的影响因素对于稳定房价，促进房地产市场健康地发展具有重要意义。房价是由房地产市场供需双方决定的，房价波动是由房地产市场供需失衡所致，所以本文运用供需理论来分析住宅价格波动的影响机理。首先，本文用详细的数据说明我国住宅市场供求及住宅价格波动现状；其次，定性地分析住宅价格波动的基础理论、影响因素和结构方程模型；再次，本文借助结构方程模型实证了住宅价格波动的影响机理，即住宅市场供需作为潜变量，分别借鉴前人研究成果和住宅市场现状归纳出14个可测变量，选取了近15年住宅市场数据作为样本，通过模型的构建、识别、拟合、修正及验证，最终确定了含有2个潜变量，10个显变量，显著性较好的结构方程模型，发挥出结构方程模型优化、简化结构的优势，并使其研究更为简洁与客观。最后利用二阶因子模型进行研究，对1998-2012年我国住宅市场房价波动进行评价，我们能客观地分析出住宅价格波动、住宅市场供需与10个可测变量间的关系，得出影响市场供需的主次因素，并把握住宅市场房价波动的影响机理，，我们就能“釜底抽薪”制定出有效抑制房价快速增长并促使房价合理回归的的方针政策。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the reform of housing system in our country and the rapid growth of our economy, the house price has soared all the time, and the housing price has exceeded the purchasing power of the residents. Housing has become the focus of the people's attention, and it has also aroused the attention of the government.Under the influence of the market, the price of commodity is generally determined by the relationship between supply and demand. The rising of house price is closely related to the supply and demand of real estate market, and the factors that affect the supply and demand of the market will affect the house price.It is of great significance to study the influencing factors of housing price fluctuation for stabilizing house price and promoting the healthy development of real estate market.The house price is decided by the supply and demand of the real estate market, and the fluctuation of the house price is caused by the imbalance of the supply and demand of the real estate market. Therefore, this paper uses the theory of supply and demand to analyze the influence mechanism of the housing price fluctuation.First, this paper uses detailed data to explain the current situation of housing supply and demand and housing price fluctuation in China; secondly, qualitatively analyzes the basic theory, influencing factors and structural equation model of housing price volatility; thirdly,In this paper, the influence mechanism of housing price fluctuation is demonstrated by using structural equation model, that is, the supply and demand of housing market as latent variables, and 14 measurable variables are concluded by reference to the previous research results and the present situation of housing market, respectively.Taking the data of the housing market for the past 15 years as the sample, through the construction, identification, fitting, correction and verification of the model, the structural equation model with 2 latent variables, 10 explicit variables and good significance is finally determined.The advantages of structural equation model optimization are brought into play to simplify the structure and make the research more concise and objective.Finally, the second order factor model is used to evaluate the fluctuation of housing price in China from 1998 to 2012. We can objectively analyze the relationship between housing price fluctuation, the relationship between supply and demand of housing market and 10 measurable variables.The main and secondary factors that influence the supply and demand of the market and the influence mechanism of the house price fluctuation in the housing market are obtained, and we can draw up the principle and policy of effectively restraining the rapid increase of the house price and promoting the reasonable return of the house price.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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