金融冲击与房地产市场波动——一个宏观分析框架及中国的经验证据

发布时间：2018-04-15 05:05

本文选题：“总体冲击—传导机制”假说 + FCI　；参考：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文从总量宏观分析的视角,提出了金融变量与房地产市场的"总体冲击—传导机制"假说,据此用中国的数据构建金融状况指数(包含房价的FCI1和不包含房价的FCI2),再对金融状况指数(FCI1和FCI2)与房地产指数做实证分析。研究发现,在资产价格中房价比股价更能反映一国的金融状况;在引入金融状况指数的金融变量中,利率与房价的相关性最强;房价和利率对总产出的影响周期更长。国房景气指数、房地产投资指数和房价指数对FCI冲击的响应显著,并存在不同的表现。由于房价对居民财富、金融状况和宏观经济的影响显著,货币政策理应干预房价,必须精准把握干预的时机和干预的力度以及注重多种货币政策工具的有效搭配使用。
[Abstract]:This paper puts forward the hypothesis of "overall shock conduction mechanism" between financial variables and real estate market from the perspective of macro analysis of total amount.Based on the data of China, this paper constructs the financial condition index (FCI1 including house price and FCI2 without housing price, and then makes an empirical analysis on financial condition index FCI1 and FCI2) and real estate index.It is found that house price can reflect a country's financial situation more than stock price in asset price; interest rate has the strongest correlation with house price in the financial variable of introducing financial condition index; house price and interest rate have a longer period of influence on total output.The national housing boom index, real estate investment index and house price index have significant response to the impact of FCI, and there are different performance.Due to the significant influence of house price on residents' wealth, financial situation and macro economy, monetary policy should intervene in house price, and must grasp precisely the time and intensity of intervention and pay attention to the effective combination of various monetary policy tools.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;南京大学中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心;杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目 (10JZD025);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目 (14JZD028)的资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F832

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