我国动力煤价格波动及其对经济增长的冲击效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 01:37

本文选题：动力煤 + 价格波动　；参考：《中国地质大学（北京）》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：动力煤又称燃料用煤、燃烧用煤，其查明资源储量占煤炭查明资源储量的75.83%，是我国煤炭的主体。2012年，我国进口动力煤1.01亿吨，增长83.8%。加上经济增长放缓，价格双轨制取消等因素，国内动力煤价格波动日益剧烈，深刻影响物价系统，对我国经济运行产生严重冲击，直接威胁一些煤炭企业，资源城市的经济社会安全。本文依托“鄂尔多斯盆地矿产资源区划研究”与“鄂尔多斯能源矿产、非能源化工矿产技术经济评价”两个地调项目，选择2002年以来动力煤价格、经济增长等月度动态数据，以鄂尔多斯市为实证，研究动力煤价格波动及其对经济增长的影响问题，本论文取得了以下进展：将动力煤价格作为独立对象进行系统性的定量化研究，结果表明2002年1月—2013年2月动力煤价格波动轨迹经历了3个完整的收缩性周期和1个不完整的回升周期，周期平均长度约30个月，扩收比为0.69。动力煤价格波动主要以能源替代作用为主，其中国外动力煤价格和石油价格的贡献率分别为18.0%和14.05%，市场供给与工业经济增长的贡献率分别为11.31%与9.46%，而动力煤贸易中的进口比例贡献率仅为2.76%，因此现阶段可适度加大动力煤进口规模。动力煤价格波动并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因，且与投资关系不明显，其与消费存在单向格兰杰因果关系、而与进口、出口均存在双向因果关系。动力煤价格与经济增长及其构成要素存在三个层次关系：(1)动力煤价格波动与经济增长、消费、进口与出口间存在长期均衡关系；(2)动力煤价格波动与经济增长、消费、进口与出口在滞后弹性与传导强度上存在显著的非对称性特点。其中经济增长对动力煤价格的滞后弹性为-0.11，传导强度为18.18%，而后者对前者的滞后弹性为2.41，，传导强度为3.92%；(3)动力煤价格波动对消费、进口、出口的动态冲击呈现明显的阶段性，存在2004年与2008年两个拐点。鄂尔多斯市依靠动力煤开采实现经济增长奇迹，然而2012年来动力煤价格的大幅下降使其经济增长出现严重放缓，加速民间借贷资金链的断裂与房地产泡沫的破灭，使其规划转型依托的装备制造等产业发展受阻，阻碍了其产业转型的难度。因此需要采取建立动力煤期货市场、发展替代能源、提高进口比例、控制高能耗产业盲目发展，加大勘查力度等措施，避免动力煤价格出现过频过大波动。
[Abstract]:Thermal coal, also known as fuel coal, combustion coal, its identified reserves of coal resources accounted for 75.83 percent of the resources identified reserves, is the main part of coal in China. In 2012, China imported 101 million tons of thermal coal, an increase of 83.8 percent.Coupled with factors such as slowing economic growth and cancelling the two-track price system, domestic thermal coal prices are fluctuating more and more sharply, which profoundly affect the price system, and have a serious impact on the economic operation of our country, and directly threaten some coal enterprises.The economic and social security of resource cities.Based on "study on Mineral Resources regionalization in Ordos Basin" and "Technical and Economic Evaluation of Energy Minerals and Non-Energy Chemical Minerals in Ordos", this paper selects monthly dynamic data of thermal coal price and economic growth since 2002.Taking Ordos city as an example, the paper studies the fluctuation of thermal coal price and its impact on economic growth. The paper has made the following progress:The systematic quantitative research on thermal coal price as an independent object shows that the fluctuation track of thermal coal price experienced three complete contraction cycles and one incomplete recovery cycle from January 2002 to February 2013.The average length of the cycle is about 30 months, and the expanded ratio is 0.69.The price fluctuation of thermal coal is dominated by energy substitution.The contribution rates of foreign thermal coal price and oil price are 18.0% and 14.05 respectively. The contribution rates of market supply and industrial economic growth are 11.31% and 9.46% respectively, while the contribution rate of import ratio in thermal coal trade is only 2.76%.Increase the power coal import scale.The fluctuation of thermal coal price is not the Granger cause of economic growth, and its relationship with investment is not obvious. It has one-way Granger causality with consumption, but two-way causality with import and export.There are three levels of relationship between thermal coal price and economic growth and its components: 1) fluctuation of thermal coal price and economic growth, long term equilibrium relationship between consumption, import and export; fluctuation of thermal coal price and economic growth; consumption.There is significant asymmetry between import and export in hysteresis elasticity and conduction strength.Among them, the lag elasticity of economic growth to the price of thermal coal is -0.11, and the conduction strength is 18.18, while the latter has a lag elasticity of 2.41 and a conduction strength of 3.92%) the dynamic impact on consumption, import and export of the price fluctuation of thermal coal is obviously phased.There are two inflection points in 2004 and 2008.Ordos relies on thermal coal mining to achieve a miracle of economic growth. However, the sharp drop in thermal coal prices since 2012 has caused a serious slowdown in its economic growth, accelerating the breakup of the private lending chain and the bursting of the real estate bubble.The development of equipment manufacturing and other industries which make its planning transition is blocked, which hinders the difficulty of its industrial transformation.Therefore, it is necessary to take measures such as establishing the future market of thermal coal, developing alternative energy sources, increasing the import ratio, controlling the blind development of high energy consumption industry, and increasing the intensity of exploration, so as to avoid excessive frequency and large fluctuations in the price of thermal coal.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F426.21

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