重庆市房地产价格变动对各收入阶层居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 03:20

本文选题：房地产价格 + 财富效应　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：深化房地产市场化改革是促进消费，扩大内需，拉动投资增长，保持国民经济持续快速健康发展的有力措施。然而，随着我国房地产市场的繁荣发展，呈现出房地产价格居高不下和居民消费率下降并存的局面，这已成为困扰我国经济增长的重要因素。房地产是我国居民家庭财富的重要组成部分，为了弄清房地产与居民消费之间内在联系，，认识房地产价格变动影响居民消费的机理，验证房地产市场财富效应是否得到有效发挥，本文以重庆市为例，研究一个特定区域的房地产价格变动对当地居民消费的影响。本文梳理了房地产价格变动影响居民消费相关理论，分析了重庆市房地产市场发展现状和居民消费情况，在此基础上选取重庆市1999-2012年的季度时间序列，通过协整检验和构建向量误差修正模型，从整体上实证分析房地产价格变动对居民消费的影响；为了细分这种影响在不同收入阶层中的区别，进一步选取重庆市2000-2012年不同收入阶层居民的年度数据，通过建立面板模型具体分析房地产价格变动对各收入阶层居民消费的影响差异。时间序列的实证结果表明：可支配收入是影响居民消费最主要的因素；在短期，重庆市房价上涨的财富效应大于挤出效应，促进居民消费；在长期，重庆市房价上涨的财富效应小于挤出效应，抑制居民消费；面板数据的实证结果表明：重庆市房地产价格上涨对低收入和高收入两个阶层的居民消费有一定的促进作用，对中等偏下收入、中等收入和中等偏上三个收入阶层的居民消费有明显的抑制作用。接下来对实证结果进行原因分析，并探讨了我国房地产市场发展过程中存在的问题，主要包括房地产市场供需结构不均衡、房价上涨过快、制度存在缺陷、社会保障不健全等。最后，从发挥房地产财富效应、缓解挤出效应和重视房地产民生保障功能、区别各收入阶层调控措施几个方面提出相关的对策启示。
[Abstract]:Deepening the market-oriented reform of real estate is a powerful measure to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, stimulate investment growth, and maintain the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy. However, with the prosperity and development of the real estate market in our country, the high real estate price and the decline of the resident consumption rate coexist, which has become an important factor perplexing the economic growth of our country. Real estate is an important part of household wealth in our country. In order to understand the internal relationship between real estate and household consumption, we can understand the mechanism that the change of real estate price affects residents' consumption. This paper takes Chongqing as an example to study the effect of real estate price change on local residents' consumption. This article combs the real estate price change influence resident consumption correlation theory, analyzes the Chongqing real estate market development present situation and the resident consumption situation, on this basis selects Chongqing 1999-2012 quarterly time series, Through cointegration test and vector error correction model, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of real estate price change on residents' consumption in order to subdivide the difference between different income groups. This paper further selects the annual data of residents of different income groups in Chongqing from 2000 to 2012, and analyzes the difference of real estate price changes on the consumption of residents of different income classes by establishing panel model. The empirical results of time series show that: disposable income is the most important factor affecting residents' consumption; in the short term, the wealth effect of rising house prices in Chongqing is greater than that of crowding out effect, and promoting residents' consumption; in the long run, The wealth effect of housing price rise in Chongqing is smaller than that of crowding-out effect, and the empirical results of panel data show that the rise of real estate price in Chongqing can promote the consumption of both low-income and high-income groups. The consumption of middle income, middle income and middle income groups has obvious restraining effect. Then it analyzes the reasons of the empirical results and discusses the problems existing in the development of the real estate market in our country, including the imbalance of the supply and demand structure of the real estate market, the rapid rise of the house price, the defects of the system, the imperfect social security and so on. Finally, this paper puts forward some relevant countermeasures from exerting the wealth effect of real estate, alleviating the crowding out effect, paying attention to the function of ensuring the livelihood of the real estate, and differentiating the adjustment and control measures of various income classes.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

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