乌鲁木齐市居民购房贷款行为影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 05:27

本文选题：居民购房贷款 + 影响因素　；参考：《新疆农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：长久以来，房地产作为驱动中国经济的主导产业，在其饱受诟病的同时，无可否认仍是当今最有力的消费刺激因子。随着房价逐步攀升，其涨幅已经远超工资涨幅，贷款便成为城市多数居民消费住房的主要选择。本文以乌鲁木齐市三处中档住宅小区200位购房贷款人为例，通过随机参与首次购房者签订购房贷款合同时面对面问询，在了解样本区社会经济状况、房地产发展现状、房价水平及居民收入支出情况的基础上，对样本购房贷款行为进行分析，得出居民的购房贷款行为特征，运用二元Logistic模型，对居民购房贷款行为影响因素进行综合评价，为优化居民购房贷款行为提供依据。文章的内容主要包括如下：第1章引言，首先对乌鲁木齐市居民的购房贷款行为影响因素实证研究的背景、目的和重要性进行阐述，其次对文章的研究内容、方法和技术路线进行简单的介绍。第2章研究的基础概念、相关理论及国内外研究综述。第3章样本区研究设计，主要是对样本区房地产市场发展现状、房价走势、居民人均可支配收入及人均消费支出情况进行分析，提出居民的购房贷款行为影响因素的调查方法与内容，对贷款家庭的基本情况进行了简要分析。第4章居民购房贷款行为及特征分析，首先是对贷款人的贷前考量、贷款选择、贷款状况评价三个方面进行实证分析，，其次对居民购房贷款行为的特征进行分析。第5章样本区居民购房贷款行为影响因素分析，对居民的购房贷款行为影响因素分为感性意愿影响因素与理性意愿影响因素，利用二元Logistic回归模型对各因素进行分析，得出影响居民的购房贷款行为的主要因素。第6章优化居民购房贷款行为的对策建议，主要是针对影响居民的购房贷款行为主要因素及购房贷款的行为特征，提出优化居民购房贷款行为的建议。第7章结论，提出本文结论。文章主要得出以下结论：第一，居民在购房贷款行为中表现出有限理性；购房贷款人群多为青年、中年这些有较强购房需求以及拥有一定经济基础的人；受传统思想的影响，近七成的还贷主体为男性；在购房贷款过程中，人们对国家购房政策认知不足，对政策的看重程度明显高于人们实际的认知程度；超过半数的还贷主体全部依靠或部分依靠父母资助首付款；贷款主体的家庭月收入无论是高还是相对较低，均呈现出理性的家庭月支出；贷款家庭的保险拥有情况较好，有较好的抗风险能力；受家庭收入、贷后生活考虑的影响，多数人选择长期贷款。第二，通过二元Logistic回归模型对居民购房贷款行为影响因素的实证分析得出：年龄、共同还贷人数、还贷主体、家庭月收入、年利率接受程度、月还款额与月收入比以及对月还款额看法等对居民购房贷款行为影响比较显著，各因素的影响程度各异。
[Abstract]:For a long time, real estate, as the leading industry driving China's economy, has been criticized, but it is undeniable that it is still the most powerful consumer stimulus. As house prices climb and their gains far outpace wage increases, lending has become a major choice for most urban residents. This paper takes 200 mortgage buyers in three middle-grade residential districts in Urumqi as an example, through face-to-face inquiry when the first-time buyers sign the purchase loan contract, in order to understand the social and economic situation of the sample area and the present situation of the real estate development. Based on the level of house price and the income and expenditure of residents, this paper analyzes the behavior of house purchase loan, obtains the characteristics of the behavior of house purchase loan, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the influencing factors of the behavior of house purchase loan by using the dual Logistic model. It provides the basis for optimizing the behavior of housing loan. The main contents of the article are as follows: The first chapter introduces the background, purpose and importance of the empirical research on the influencing factors of the housing loan behavior of Urumqi residents, and then introduces the research content, methods and technical route of the article. In chapter 2, the basic concepts, related theories and domestic and foreign research are reviewed. Chapter 3 is the research and design of the sample area, which mainly analyzes the current situation of the real estate market development, the trend of house prices, the per capita disposable income of residents and the per capita consumption expenditure in the sample area. This paper puts forward the investigation methods and contents of the influencing factors of the residents' house purchase loan behavior, and briefly analyzes the basic situation of the loan families. In chapter 4, the author analyzes the behavior and characteristics of residential housing loan. Firstly, it makes an empirical analysis of the lender's pre-loan consideration, loan selection and loan status evaluation. Secondly, it analyzes the characteristics of residential housing loan behavior. Chapter 5 analyzes the influencing factors of the residents' housing loan behavior in the sample area. The influencing factors are divided into perceptual and rational factors, and the binary Logistic regression model is used to analyze the factors. The main factors that influence the housing loan behavior of residents are obtained. In chapter 6, the countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the behavior of house purchase loan are put forward, which mainly aim at the main factors that affect the behavior of house purchase loan and the characteristics of the behavior of the purchase loan, and put forward some suggestions to optimize the behavior of house purchase loan. In chapter 7, the conclusion of this paper is put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the residents show limited rationality in the behavior of housing loan, most of them are young, middle-aged people who have a strong demand for housing and have a certain economic base, under the influence of traditional ideas, nearly 70% of the main repayment of loans is male; In the process of buying a house loan, people do not know enough about the national house purchase policy, and value the policy more than people's actual cognition; more than half of the mortgage payers depend on their parents to subsidize the down payment in whole or in part. Whether the monthly income of the family is high or relatively low, the main body of the loan presents a rational monthly expenditure of the family; the insurance of the loan family has a better condition of possession and a better ability to resist risks; and it is affected by the family income and the consideration of life after the loan. Most people opt for long-term loans. Secondly, through the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the residential housing loan behavior based on the dual Logistic regression model, the author draws the following conclusions: age, the number of common mortgage payers, the principal part of the loan repayment, the monthly income of the family, the degree of acceptance of the annual interest rate. The ratio of monthly repayment to monthly income and the view of monthly repayment amount have a significant effect on the housing loan behavior of residents, and the influence degree of each factor is different.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4

【参考文献】