基于房地产周期的可持续增长财务战略研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 10:10

本文选题：房地产周期 + 可持续增长　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来随着国家经济的发展,以及居民收入和消费水平不断提高,针对房地产市场的需求快速增长,房地产行业更是以前所未有的速度快速成长,已经成为我国国民经济的支柱产业。但房地产行业的发展并不是一帆风顺的,与宏观经济运行过程类似,房地产行业也客观存在着周期波动现象。正视房地产业的周期波动现象,分析决定房地产周期波动的内生因素和外部冲击,提出应对周期波动的房地产业政策,对仍处于起步阶段的我国房地产业更是具有重要的现实指导意义。房地产市场的供求状况、经济基本面、经济周期和国家的调控政策,都使房地产行业具有明显的周期性特点。尤其是房地产市场是国家宏观调控的重点领域,政府会根据经济运行状况和行业的发展现状实施促进或者调整政策,这也是我国房地产行业周期性波动的一个重要原因。同时房地产开发行业作为资金密集型的行业,很多企业自有资金有限,但在市场诱导下利用财务杠杆等手段进行盲目扩张,将企业至于危地。因此,可以简单概括房地产企业的财务战略目标,即促进发展和规避风险。房地产企业如何克服行业自身的周期,兼顾效率与效果,这也应成为当前房地产企业财务战略亟待解决的问题之一。因此房地产行业的财务战略应当既适应企业的发展需要,增加股东价值,又应当合理规避财务风险,尤其是在本行业周期性特征显著的情况下,提倡可持续发展的财务理念应是解决上述问题的重要途径。财务可持续增长模型作为房地产企业财务战略决策和财务分析的一种有效工具,为企业摆脱增长速度困境,实现企业的稳定持续发展方面起着重要的导向作用。 1.论文的主要内容本文分六个章节。第一章为导论,主要是本文的研究背景进行介绍、研究方法及思路,提出本文主要是结合房地产行业的业务特点,特别调控政策影响和市场的剧烈波动来研究房地产市场的发展及相应的财务成长战略。第二章为文献综述,介绍了房地产周期的研究脉络,并详细介绍了国内外关于房地产周期,尤其是与财务风险及战略相关的研究成果。第三章和第四章是本文的主体部分,主要论述房地产行业周期性特点与可持续增长之间的关系。第三章首先简要分析了房地产行业的周期性,分析了房地产市场投资行为、政策调整、行为心理与市场周期的关系,并归纳整理了我国1979年至2009年三十年间的房地产市场调控政策；最后讨论了房地产周期与财务风险。第四章在回顾了可持续增长的相关文献的基础上,提出了针对周期性明显的房地产行业,可持续增长应当更加注重风险规避与有效增长,并针对目前流行的四种可持续增长模型进行了比较分析。第五章为案例分析,主要结合对房地产周期所作的剖析,把万科公司作为典型的事例,开展研究,对各个可持续增长模型开展验证,从而得出结论：价值与增长的联系是由基于自由现金流量的可持续增长模型建立的,对企业的增长管理具有实际的借鉴意义。第六章在前章从微观角度分析房地产开发企业可持续增长的基础上,从宏观角度提出促进房地产行业发展健康、有序发展的若干建议,包括建立房地产行业的市场预警机制和配套产业支撑体系,实施经济性与社会性相结合的管控措施,并继续深入配套改革等等。 2.论文的主要观点考虑到房地产行业周期性和国家宏观调控力度大的特点,我们不仅仅从企业增长规模和速度的角度来看待有效增长,或者是防止财务风险和资金流断裂考虑问题,更应从价值增值的角度,建立价值与增长的联系,使增长为价值服务。企业必须依靠对于内外部环境的认真分析和理论测算,依据现有业务规模和未来增长水平,结合自有资金能力和融资能力,制定切实可行的财务战略目标,实现企业的可持续发展。可持续增长,尤其是基于稳健现金流的可持续增长理念,应构成了房地产开发企业财务战略目标的基本内容。基于现金流口径可持续增长模型的最大意义在于将增长与价值创造联系起来,途经为现金流,手段为可持续增长：如果可持续增长为负,则毁损股东价值,只有可持续增长为正,企业才能得到价值增值。价值创造是企业成熟战略实施的结果,可持续增长是企业成熟财务战略落实的体现。只有成熟的财务战略,同时兼顾企业长期利益与短期安排,稳定企业盈利模式、资本结构与股利分配,企业才能稳定持久的增长,价值才能持续的创造。 3.论文的主要贡献第一、本文的选题立意在于研究房地产行业的周期性对企业财务风险和财务战略的影响,因为目前研究文献主要是从经济学角度出发研究房地产周期,从财务战略视角考量房地产周期对企业的影响研究较少,因此本文有一定新意和指导意义。第二,本文采用的希金斯的模型与拉巴波特的模型进行数据比较分析了当前房地产行业增长的有效性问题。研究发现基于现金流口径的可持续增长模型计算的可持续增长率波动更为激烈,与企业现金流的对应关系更为明确,并且鼓励适度的投资,为以后增长做准备。基于现金流口径可持续增长模型的最大意义在于将增长与价值创造联系起来,途经为现金流,手段为可持续增长。第三、本文的研究成果为后续的研究以及实务中房地产行业制定企业财务战略提供了有意义的指导。本文分别从经济学与财务学的视角观察问题、解决问题,交叉融合,互为借鉴,希望能够为后续类似的研究起到抛砖引玉,提供思路的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years , with the development of the national economy , as well as the rising incomes and consumption of the real estate , the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of our national economy .

The financial strategy of real estate industry should not only meet the development needs of enterprises , increase shareholder value , but also reasonably avoid financial risks .

1 . Main contents of the paper

This paper is divided into six chapters . The first chapter is the introduction , mainly the research background of this paper , the research method and the thought , this paper mainly discusses the development of the real estate market and the corresponding financial growth strategy based on the business characteristics of the real estate industry , especially the policy influence and the violent fluctuation of the market . The second chapter provides a review of the literature , introduces the research pulse of the real estate cycle , and details the domestic and foreign research results about the real estate cycle , especially the financial risk and strategy .

The third chapter and the fourth chapter are the main parts of this paper , which mainly discuss the relationship between the periodic characteristics and the sustainable growth of the real estate industry . In chapter three , the periodicity of the real estate industry is analyzed briefly , and the relationship between the investment behavior , the policy adjustment , the behavior psychology and the market cycle of the real estate market is analyzed .
In the end , the real estate cycle and financial risk are discussed . In chapter 4 , on the basis of reviewing the relevant literatures of sustainable growth , the paper puts forward a real estate industry with obvious periodicity , and the sustainable growth should pay more attention to risk avoidance and effective growth , and the comparative analysis of the four sustainable growth models currently prevailing .

The fifth chapter is a case study , mainly combining the analysis of the real estate cycle , taking Vanke Company as a typical example , carrying out research , carrying out research on each sustainable growth model , and concluding that the relation between value and growth is established by the sustainable growth model based on free cash flow .

2 . Main viewpoints of the thesis

Considering the characteristics of the real estate industry ' s periodicity and the macro - control of the country , we should not only view the effective growth from the angle of the scale and speed of the growth of the enterprise , or prevent the financial risk and the capital flow from breaking into consideration .

The biggest significance of the sustainable growth model based on cash flow aperture is to connect the growth with the value creation , through the cash flow , the means are sustainable growth : if the sustainable growth is negative , the value added value of the enterprise can be obtained . The value creation is the result of the implementation of the mature strategy of the enterprise , and the sustainable growth is the implementation of the mature financial strategy of the enterprise . Only the mature financial strategy can ensure that the enterprise ' s long - term interests and short - term arrangements , stabilize the profit and profit pattern of the enterprise , the capital structure and the dividend distribution , the enterprise can stabilize the sustained growth , and the value can be continuously created .

3 . Main contributions of the paper

First , the thesis aims to study the influence of the periodicity of the real estate industry on the financial risk and financial strategy of the enterprise , because the current research literature mainly studies the real estate period from the perspective of economics , and considers the influence of the real estate period to the enterprise from the perspective of financial strategy . Therefore , this paper has some new meaning and guiding significance .

Secondly , the paper compares the model of the Humpkins and the model of Rabbah , and analyzes the validity of the current real estate industry . The research shows that the sustainable growth rate of the sustainable growth model based on the cash flow caliber is more intense , and the corresponding relationship with the cash flow of the enterprise is more explicit , and the appropriate investment is encouraged to prepare for the future growth . The biggest significance of the sustainable growth model based on the cash flow caliber is to link the growth with the value creation , through the cash flow , the means are sustainable growth .

Third , the research results provide meaningful guidance for the follow - up research and the real estate industry in the real estate industry . In this paper , we study the problems , solve problems , cross - fusion and mutual reference from the perspective of economics and finance .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4

【参考文献】