对房地产市场走势的判断和建议

发布时间：2018-05-01 21:51

本文选题：房地产市场 + 库存问题　；参考：《城市开发》2016年20期

【摘要】：正受房地产行业三年开发建设周期的影响,我国房地产市场也表现出三年小周期变化特征。当前房地产市场已经处于周期高位,下半年和明年房地产市场将逐步进入周期下行阶段,受人口红利消失、经济下行等因素影响,未来几年房地产投资将维持低增长态势。从库存情况看,去年以来住宅去库存成效显著,库存问题主要为非住宅库存压力持续上升,住宅高库存主要分布在经济不活跃地区。建议进一步理清去库存调控思路,在持续低利率背景下要有防风险底线;消化住宅库存需要长短期政策相结合,不可一蹴而就;推进供给侧改革,促进非住宅库存消化;房地产调控要坚持因地施策。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of the three-year development and construction cycle of the real estate industry, the real estate market of our country also shows the characteristics of the three-year small cycle change. The current real estate market has been in a high cycle, the second half and next year of the real estate market will gradually enter the cycle downward phase, due to the loss of demographic dividends, economic downturn and other factors, real estate investment in the next few years will maintain a low growth trend. From the stock situation, the housing destocking effect has been remarkable since last year, the inventory problem is mainly non-residential inventory pressure continues to rise, residential high inventory is mainly distributed in economically inactive areas. It is suggested to further clarify the idea of destocking regulation and control, to have the bottom line of risk prevention under the background of continuous low interest rate, to digest housing inventory by combining long-term and short-term policies, to promote supply-side reform, and to promote the digestion of non-residential inventory. Real estate regulation and control should adhere to local policy.
【作者单位】：国家发改委投资研究所房地产中心;
【分类号】：F299.23

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