中国货币政策的房价传导机制分析

发布时间：2018-05-07 19:03

本文选题：货币政策传导机制 + 房价　；参考：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国资本市场的发展，股票市场和房地产市场在我国货币政策传导过程中充当着重要角色。货币政策的传导渠道可以分为利率传导渠道、信贷传导渠道和资本市场传导渠道。资本市场传导渠道又包括股票市场传导、房地产市场传导和汇率市场传导机制。文章分别从理论和实证层面分析了货币政策的房价传导机制和传导效率。这篇文章主要分为五部分。第一部分为总论。第二部分是文献综述部分。第三部分建立了我国货币政策的房价传导的理论机制。文章在第四部分建立了联立方程模型和结构向量自回归模型，分别从静态和动态两个层面分析了货币政策的房价传导机制。实证过程得出结果如下：（1）货币政策从银行和金融机构传导到中间变量——房价——的过程中，银行发挥着不可替代的地位。其中银行信贷水平对房价有显著的影响，银行贷款利率对房价的影响有时滞效应，但是长期来看银行贷款基准利率的调整会拉低房价，而市场利率对房价虽然有负的影响，但持续时间不长。（2）在实体经济层面，房价对消费的影响主要为负，房价的托宾Q效应比家庭财富效应显著。房价的上涨会带动物价上涨，，存在滞后性。房价波动对经济增长有带动的作用，但是这种带动作用不能持续。第四部分针对本文的研究结果提出了几条对策建议。本文在前人研究的基础上考虑了央行调整银行基准贷款利率对房价水平的影响，在实证方法上用到了联立方程模型来分析货币政策通过房地产市场的静态传导情况，这些都是本文的创新点。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's capital market, stock market and real estate market play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. The transmission channel of monetary policy can be divided into interest rate transmission channel, credit transmission channel and capital market transmission channel. Capital market transmission channels include stock market transmission, real estate market transmission and exchange rate market transmission mechanism. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism and efficiency of monetary policy from theoretical and empirical aspects. This article is divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction. The second part is the literature review part. The third part establishes the theoretical mechanism of housing price transmission of monetary policy in China. In the fourth part, the simultaneous equation model and structural vector autoregressive model are established, and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is analyzed from static and dynamic aspects. The results of the empirical process are as follows: Bank plays an irreplaceable role in the process of transferring monetary policy from banks and financial institutions to intermediate variables-house prices. Among them, bank credit level has a significant impact on house prices, and bank loan interest rates have a delay effect on house prices. But in the long run, the adjustment of bank loan benchmark interest rates will lower house prices, while market interest rates have a negative impact on house prices. But it didn't last long. 2) in the real economy, the effect of house price on consumption is mainly negative, and the Tobin Q effect of house price is more significant than that of household wealth. The rise in house prices will drive prices up and lag behind. The fluctuation of house price has the function of driving economic growth, but this kind of driving effect cannot be sustained. The fourth part puts forward several countermeasures and suggestions on the results of this paper. On the basis of previous studies, this paper considers the influence of the central bank adjusting the bank benchmark loan interest rate on the housing price level, and uses the simultaneous equation model to analyze the static conduction of monetary policy through the real estate market. These are the innovative points of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

【参考文献】