绿色建筑项目全寿命周期成本风险研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 04:24

本文选题：绿色建筑项目 + 全寿命周期成本　；参考：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,全球范围内面临着环境污染与能源短缺的重大挑战,建筑业能耗在全球能源消耗中占比巨大。绿色建筑不仅能减少温室气体的排放,还能缩小碳足迹,具备应对环境与能源挑战的双重潜力。我国正处在城镇化快速发展时期,每年新增建筑面积庞大,大力发展绿色建筑刻不容缓。但我国引入绿色建筑的时间较短,政策、市场、技术等条件均不成熟,绿色建筑项目开发过程中存在较大的成本风险。而房地产企业对于绿色建筑项目成本风险缺乏系统的认识与有效的控制办法,这严重阻碍了其开发的积极性,进而制约了绿色建筑的发展。因此,进行绿色建筑项目全寿命周期成本风险研究具有重要的理论意义与实践价值。论文通过整理分析国内外绿色建筑的相关文献,对绿色建筑、绿色建筑风险及风险管理的研究现状及成果进行梳理,探索绿色建筑的概念与内涵,并运用项目全寿命周期成本理论,将绿色建筑划分为决策、设计、建设、运营维护、拆除回收5个阶段。依据国内外风险管理相关文献,将风险从传统的2维属性拓展至概率、损失、可控性、管理成本4维属性。结合国内外文献研究、风险识别的原则与我国绿色建筑发展实际情况,分阶段识别出绿色建筑项目全寿命周期中的36个成本风险因素,构建绿色建筑项目全寿命周期成本风险清单,并对各风险因素进行释义、分析其对成本的影响。通过常见评价方法优缺点对比,结合实际应用需要,选择熵权法与TOPSIS法作为绿色建筑项目全寿命周期成本风险综合评价方法,并阐述方法原理及计算步骤。依据风险回避、风险降低、风险转移、风险保留这4种常用的风险应对策略,对绿色建筑项目全寿命周期主要的成本风险因素进行分析,提出各个风险因素的应对策略以及具体的应对措施。最后,以C项目为例,采用专家访谈法对建立的成本风险清单进行优化,得到由35个成本风险因素构成的符合项目实际情况的成本风险清单。对C项目各参与主体进行问卷调查,获取项目35个成本风险因素4个属性的评价数据;以决策阶段为例运用熵权法计算出风险因素4个属性的权重,进而用TOPSIS法对决策阶段成本风险因素进行排序;根据排序的结果并结合B公司实际运营模式,提出各阶段排在前3的成本风险因素的应对措施。
[Abstract]:At present, the global scope is facing the major challenge of environmental pollution and energy shortage. The energy consumption of construction industry is huge in the global energy consumption. Green building can not only reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, but also reduce the carbon footprint, and have the dual potential to cope with the challenges of the environment and energy. There is no delay in increasing the building area and developing green building vigorously. However, the time of the introduction of green building is relatively short, the conditions of policy, market and technology are not mature, and there is a large cost risk in the process of green building project development, and the real estate enterprises lack systematic understanding and effective control on the cost risk of green building items. This method seriously hinders the enthusiasm of its development and restricts the development of green building. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical value to study the life-cycle cost risk of green building projects. Through the analysis of Xiang Guanwen's contribution to green buildings at home and abroad, green building, green building risk and risk management The research status and results are combed, and the concept and connotation of green building are explored, and the green building is divided into 5 stages of decision, design, construction, operation and maintenance and recovery by using the life cycle cost theory of the project. According to the related literature at home and abroad, the risk is extended from the traditional 2 dimension to the probability and loss. 4 dimension attribute of control and management cost. Combining the domestic and foreign literature research, the principle of risk identification and the actual situation of China's green building development, 36 cost risk factors in the whole life cycle of green building project are identified, and the life-cycle cost risk list of green building project is constructed, and the risk factors are explained and analyzed. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the common evaluation methods and combining the practical application needs, the entropy weight method and TOPSIS method are selected as the comprehensive evaluation method of the life-cycle cost risk of green building projects, and the methods and principles and the calculation steps are expounded. According to the risk avoidance, the risk reduction, the risk transfer, and the risk retention, the 4 kinds of common winds are used. The risk coping strategy is to analyze the main cost risk factors of the whole life cycle of green building project, and put forward the coping strategies and specific measures of each risk factor. Finally, the C project is taken as an example to optimize the cost risk list established by the expert interview method, and get the conforms made up of 35 cost risk factors. The cost risk list of the actual situation of the project. A questionnaire survey of the participants in the C project is carried out to obtain the evaluation data of 4 attributes of the 35 cost risk factors of the project. The weight of the 4 attributes of the risk factors is calculated by the entropy weight method at the decision-making stage, and then the cost risk factors of the decision order are sorted by the TOPSIS method. Results and combined with the actual operation mode of B company, the Countermeasures for the cost risk factors at the top 3 were put forward.

【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU201.5;TU723.3

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