资源型城市房地产市场风险及对地区经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 03:40

本文选题：资源型城市 + 房地产市场风险　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：依靠着当地丰富的能源优势,资源型城市逐步发展壮大起来。伴随着经济的快速腾飞及城镇化进程的推进,房地产市场迅速崛起。房地产价格的高涨使得市场泡沫不断膨胀,风险日益累积。由于房地产与地区经济发展的之间存在着复杂的互动影响机制,使得房地产风险治理难度加大,同时也会导致房地产风险向地区经济的传导。本文首先从房地产市场特性与资源型城市发展特性方面分析了房地产市场风险的成因,展现了房地产市场风险从产生到触发传导的动态演变过程。继而,基于资产价格波动视角,研究房地产市场风险以房地产价格波动为传导途径对地区经济的影响机制。重点分析了房地产市场风险通过财富效应、投资效应以及金融加速器效应影响消费与投资等经济产出变量。并建立向量自回归模型进行实证研究。结果显示,房地产价格波动的财富效应十分显著,这使得当房地产处于经济下行阶段,房地产市场风险会通过财富效应对居民消费支出产生较大影响。但是,房地产价格波动对于投资的直接影响效应并不显著,但金融加速器效应的存在会放大其对投资的影响效应。最后分析了房地产市场风险对地区经济整体发展的影响。从房地产价格波动对地区经济生产总值的脉冲响应与方差分解可以看出,房地产市场风险对地区经济的影响是真实存在的,但对比于经济波动自身的贡献率,这一影响并不显著。这说明,做为能源主导型经济的资源型城市,房地产市场的风险只能在一定程度上影响经济的发展增速,而不能彻底改变地区经济发展趋势。最后,根据以上研究,提出了房地产市场风险的治理对策。通过研究房地产市场风险对地区经济的影响机制,探寻促进资源型城市房地产业与地区经济的协调发展的有效路径。
[Abstract]:Depending on the local abundant energy superiority, the resource-based city develops and grows gradually. With the rapid development of economy and the advancement of urbanization, the real estate market is rising rapidly. The soaring real estate price causes the market bubble to expand unceasingly, the risk accumulates day by day. Because of the complex interactive mechanism between real estate and regional economic development, it is more difficult to manage real estate risk, and it will also lead to the transmission of real estate risk to regional economy. This paper first analyzes the causes of the real estate market risk from the characteristics of the real estate market and the development characteristics of resource-based cities, and shows the dynamic evolution process of the real estate market risk from its emergence to triggering transmission. Then, based on the perspective of asset price fluctuation, the paper studies the influence mechanism of real estate market risk on regional economy through the transmission of real estate price fluctuation. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of real estate market risk on economic output variables such as wealth effect, investment effect and financial accelerator effect. And establish vector autoregressive model for empirical research. The results show that the wealth effect of the real estate price fluctuation is very significant, which makes the real estate market risk have a great impact on the residents' consumption expenditure through the wealth effect when the real estate is in the stage of economic decline. However, the direct effect of real estate price fluctuation on investment is not significant, but the existence of financial accelerator effect will amplify its effect on investment. Finally, it analyzes the impact of real estate market risk on the overall development of regional economy. From the impulse response and variance decomposition of real estate price fluctuation to regional economic output, we can see that the impact of real estate market risk on regional economy is real, but compared with the contribution rate of economic fluctuation itself, This effect is not significant. This shows that, as a resource-based city, the risk of real estate market can only affect the economic growth rate to a certain extent, but can not completely change the regional economic development trend. Finally, according to the above research, put forward the real estate market risk management countermeasures. By studying the influence mechanism of real estate market risk on regional economy, this paper explores an effective way to promote the coordinated development of real estate industry and regional economy in resource-based cities.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F127

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