土地出让方式、出让金收入与房价关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 07:19

本文选题：土地出让方式 + 出让金收入　；参考：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济持续快速增长、城市化进程不断加快、居民收入水平稳步提高,房地产市场得到了快速发展。房地产市场的发展满足了部分居民的居住需求,改善了居民的居住条件,改变了城市面貌,为中国城市建设和经济增长做出了巨大的贡献。但是,在取得诸多成就的同时,也存在着不少问题,特别是房地产市场持续发展过程中,房地产的价格不断攀升,而且在一些城市中高房价已经远远超出了居民的可支付能力。2004年3月,国土资源部、监察部联合下发“71号”令,要求从2004年8月31日起,所有经营性的土地一律都要公开竞价出让。随着土地出让制度改革不断深化,市场化的出让方式使得土地价值得到了充分的显化,再加上土地市场垄断供给和竞争需求等因素的综合作用,中国城市地价不断上升。2007-2010年间更是地王频现,政府土地出让金收入猛增。数据显示,2010年全国土地出让成交总价款达到了274644791.15万元人民币,同比增加70.4%。土地是房地产的基础材料。土地出让方式的改变、出让金收入的高涨与房价的攀升是否存在关系成为了学术界关注的焦点。本研究在参考前人的研究基础上,构建理论分析框架,运用全国31个省市自治区的面板数据对土地出让方式、出让金收入与房价的关系进行分析,为房地产市场的健康发展提出建议。本文的研究内容主要包括：(1)回顾、评述与借鉴。通过梳理与土地价格相关的理论知识,为研究奠定坚实的理论基础；(2)理论分析。主要是从市场的需求与供给这两个方面讨论影响房价的一般性因素及其影响机理,再对”招拍挂“土地出让方式下土地价格的形成机理做分析,最后讨论不同的土地出让方式下土地出让收入金对房价的影响机理等；(3)房地产市场、土地出让运行现状的审视。对土地出让方式、出让金收入与房价的关系进行判定；(4)运用计量分析方法对土地出让方式、出让金收入与房价的关系进行实证分析；(5)在结合理论研究和实证研究的基础上提出政策建议。一.本研究的主要结论如下： 1.本文构建房地产市场均衡模型,通过模型推导,得出“招拍挂”或者协议出让的方式形成的土地出让价格越高,房价就会越高；“招拍挂”或者协议出让的方式的土地面积占比越高,房价就会越高的结论。 2.本文通过运用2003-2010年间全国31个省市自治区的数据构建面板数据模型,就土地出让方式、出让金收入和房价的关系进行了实证研究。本文集中研究的是市场化的土地出让制度,即“招拍挂”出让对于房价的影响。结果表明：(1)样本区间的土地出让方式、出让金收入与房价具有显著的正向关系,也即是随着以“招拍挂”方式出让的土地面积比重的加大和土地出让收入的提高,住宅价格会因此不断提高。这验证了理论模型对于土地出让方式对房价的影响的符号设定。与此同时,土地出让方式、出让金收入对房价的正向效应在区域间并不具有显著差异。(2)从弹性角度进行分析,可以看出无论是全国总体还是东中西部地区,供给与需求对房价的影响也不容忽视。二.主要政策建议如下： 1.调整中央和地方的财权、事权关系,解决地方政府依靠“土地财政”的状况。在财政上,适当将一些税种划归地方,解决地方政府财政支出上的瓶颈问题。如果这个问题不解决,政府将走不出“低价征用土地→拆迁、平整→储备起来→等到地价涨上去再高价卖地→再低价征用土地”这种恶性循环,而且在国家规定建设用地土地有偿使用费征收标准提高后,这种成本很可能被转嫁到地价里,进一步推高地价,从而推动房价继续攀升。 2.激活城市存量土地的开发供应。虽然当前对增量土地供应实行了严格控制,但仍有相当部分城市存量土地被开发商蓄意囤积。国家正积极加强对这些低效利用、闲置的用地的开发盘活,充实土地一级市场的可供应土地量。根据需要适时进行调整,以此推动房地产市场健康发展,引导房地产价格的合理形成。 3.解决商品房市场的结构性矛盾。政府应通过加强规划、土地政策的引导,保持普通商品房占主体地位的同时,适当控制高档商品房建设；通过税收、信贷、利率等手段,通过累进税的征收,使房地产商开发高档住房和低价位住房获取的利润相差不大,引导企业开发普通商品住房同时,要合理安排经济适用房的建设规模,调整供应办法；在部分条件成熟的地区,通过向低收人人群发放住房补贴取代经济适用房。另一方面,制定相应鼓励政策,发展廉租房,加大廉租房的建设力度,扩大其供应范围,保障最低收入人群的住房需求。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and rapid growth of China's economy, the process of urbanization has been accelerated, the income level of residents has been steadily improved and the real estate market has been rapidly developed. The development of the real estate market has met the living requirements of some residents, improved the living conditions of the residents, changed the face of the city, and made a huge contribution to the construction and economic growth of China. However, while many achievements have been made, there are also many problems, especially in the process of sustainable development of the real estate market, the price of real estate is rising, and the high house prices in some cities have gone far beyond the residents' ability to pay in March.2004, the Ministry of land and resources, the Ministry of Supervision jointly issued the "71" order. Since August 31, 2004, all operating land should be sold in public. With the deepening of the reform of the land transfer system, the market oriented way of selling land has made the land value fully manifest, and the combination of the monopoly supply of the land market and the competition demand, the land price of Chinese cities is rising by.2007-20 In the past 10 years, the land leasing income increased sharply. The data showed that the total price of land sales volume reached RMB 2 trillion and 746 billion 447 million 911 thousand and 500 in 2010. The increase of 70.4%. land was the basic material of real estate. The change of land transfer mode, the rise of the income of the transfer gold and the rising of the price of the house were related to whether there was a relationship between the rise of the price of the land and the rise of the house price. The focus of attention in the academic circle.
On the basis of the previous research, this research constructs the theoretical analysis framework, and uses the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China to analyze the relationship between the land leasing mode, the transfer gold income and the house price, and put forward some suggestions for the healthy development of the real estate market. The main contents of this study include: (1) review, review and use for reference. Combing the theoretical knowledge related to land price, laying a solid theoretical foundation for the study; (2) theoretical analysis. It mainly discusses the general factors affecting house prices and its influence mechanism from the two aspects of demand and supply of the market, and then analyzes the formation mechanism of land price under the land leasing mode. The influence mechanism of land leasing income on the same land transfer mode; (3) the real estate market and the current situation of the land transfer operation. The relationship between the land leasing mode, the transfer gold income and the house price is judged. (4) the relationship between the land transfer mode, the transfer gold income and the house price is empirically divided by the method of econometric analysis. Analysis; (5) based on theoretical research and empirical research, policy recommendations are put forward.
First, the main conclusions of this study are as follows:
1. this paper constructs the equilibrium model of the real estate market. Through the model derivation, the higher the price of land transfer is, the higher the price of the land sell, the higher the land area is, the higher the price of the house price will be.
2. by using the data model of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in 2003-2010 years, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the land leasing mode, the income of the transfer gold and the price of the house. This paper focuses on the market based land transfer system, that is, the impact of the "auction hanging" on the house price. The results show that: (1) samples There is a significant positive relationship between the land transfer mode of the interval, the income of the transfer gold and the house price, that is, the increase in the proportion of the land area and the increase of the land transfer income, and the increase of the housing price, which verifies the sign of the theoretical model on the impact of the land transfer mode on the house price. At the same time, the positive effect of land transfer mode and transfer gold income on house prices does not have significant differences between regions. (2) from an elastic perspective, it can be seen that the impact of supply and demand on house prices can not be ignored either in the whole country or in the eastern and Western regions.
Two. The main policy recommendations are as follows:
1. adjust the financial rights of the central and local governments, the relations of affairs, and the settlement of the local government's reliance on the "land finance". In finance, some taxes should be properly classified into places to solve the bottleneck problem of the local government's financial expenditure. If this problem is not solved, the government will not be able to go out of the "low price land acquisition, the demolition, the level, the reserve" and so on. When the land price rises, the land price will be sold to the land at a low price, and the land will be expropriated at a low price, and the cost is likely to be transferred to the land price, which will further push the price of land to the land price, thus promoting the price of the land to continue to climb.
2. to activate the development and supply of urban stock land. Although the current supply of incremental land is strictly controlled, a considerable amount of urban stock land is still hoarded by developers. The state is actively strengthening the development of these inefficient use, unused land use, and enriching the available land in the first level market. We should make adjustments so as to promote the healthy development of the real estate market and guide the rational formation of real estate prices.
3. to solve the structural contradictions in the commodity housing market, the government should control the construction of high-grade commercial housing by means of strengthening the planning, guiding the land policy and maintaining the main position of the ordinary commodity housing, and through tax, credit, interest rate and other means, through the collection of progressive tax, so that the real estate developers can exploit the advantage of the high-end housing and low priced housing. At the same time, to guide the enterprises to develop ordinary commodity housing, we should rationally arrange the scale of the construction of affordable housing and adjust the supply methods. In some areas with mature conditions, we should give out housing subsidies to low-income people to replace the affordable housing. On the other hand, we should encourage policies, develop low rent housing and increase the construction of low rent housing. Efforts should be made to expand the scope of supply and ensure the housing needs of the lowest income groups.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F301.3

【参考文献】