我国房地产企业过度投资实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 03:21

本文选题：房地产企业 + 上市公司　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自Jensen(1986)提出自由现金流假说以来,对企业的过度投资问题的研究成为了学术界的热点。学者们基于委托代理、信息不对称、融资约束等的视角对企业过度投资问题进行研究,但从宏观因素角度出发研究的却较少,并且研究结果都表明自由现金流是造成企业过度投资问题的主要原因。当前我国房地产发展过快并出现了诸多问题,对房地产的研究也逐渐成为了学术界的研究热点。因此,本文在总结前人的研究结果后,选用房地产上市公司2007-2010年的数据为研究样本,从宏观因素影响房地产过度投资的角度出发,并选择Richardson(2006)提出的预期投资模型,检验我国房地产上市企业的过度投资的存在性,并探索了利率、房地产价格等因素对房地产企业过度投资的影响,同时研究了过度投资对房地产企业造成的内在影响。本研究主要分为四个部分,第一部分为绪论,介绍了房地产业在我国经济发展中的重要性、房地产投资的特征及房地产过度投资现象。第二部分为研究综述,总结了前人研究过度投资问题时的理论视角与研究模型。第三部分是实证部分,首先检验了房地产企业过度投资的存在性,接着研究了过度投资的影响因素及过度投资对企业造成的内在影响。第四部分是结论,总结了本研究的结果。在前人研究的理论基础之上,本文经过实证分析后,研究发现我国房地产上市产企业存在较为严重的过度投资行为,其中存在过度投资行为的样本企业占总样本数的53.7%,并且过度投资的样本数量逐年增加。接着,本文进一步探索了过度投资的影响因素。结果发现,企业的自由现金确实是导致过度投资的重要因素,自由现金流越充裕,房地产企业发生过度投资行为的概率就越大。另外,房价的上涨也显著的增加了企业过度投资的概率,不过这种影响存在滞后性,利率的上涨在一定程度上能够抑制企业过度投资发生的概率。研究还发现过度投资行为给房地产企业造成了严重的经济影响,其显著降低了企业的获利能力和偿债能力。
[Abstract]:Since the hypothesis of free cash flow was put forward by Jensenn (1986), the research on the overinvestment of enterprises has become a hot topic in academic circles. Scholars based on the perspective of principal-agent, information asymmetry, financing constraints and so on to study the problem of excessive investment in enterprises, but from the perspective of macro factors, less research, The results show that free cash flow is the main cause of overinvestment. At present, the development of real estate in our country is too fast and many problems have appeared, and the research on real estate has gradually become a hot spot in academic circles. Therefore, after summing up the previous research results, this paper selects the data of real estate listed companies from 2007-2010 as the research sample, from the perspective of macro factors affecting the overinvestment of real estate, and chooses the expected investment model proposed by Richardson's 2006). This paper examines the existence of overinvestment in Chinese real estate listed enterprises, and probes into the influence of interest rate, real estate price and other factors on the overinvestment of real estate enterprises. At the same time, it studies the inherent influence of overinvestment on real estate enterprises. This research is divided into four parts. The first part is the introduction, which introduces the importance of real estate industry in the economic development of our country, the characteristics of real estate investment and the phenomenon of real estate overinvestment. In the second part, the author summarizes the theoretical perspective and research model of overinvestment. The third part is the empirical part, which first tests the existence of overinvestment in real estate enterprises, and then studies the influencing factors of overinvestment and the inherent influence of overinvestment on enterprises. The fourth part is the conclusion, summarizes the results of this study. On the basis of the previous studies, this paper, after empirical analysis, found that there are serious overinvestment behaviors in the listed enterprises of real estate in our country. Among them, the sample enterprises with overinvestment behavior account for 53.7% of the total sample number, and the number of overinvestment samples increases year by year. Then, this article further explores the influence factors of excessive investment. The results show that the free cash is an important factor leading to overinvestment. The more abundant the free cash flow, the greater the probability of overinvestment in real estate enterprises. In addition, the rise of house prices also significantly increases the probability of overinvestment, but this impact has a lag, interest rate increases to a certain extent can restrain the probability of overinvestment. The study also found that overinvestment has a serious economic impact on real estate enterprises, which significantly reduces their profitability and solvency.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4;F224

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