宁阳县秀水佳苑项目财务风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 23:37

本文选题：房地产 + 项目管理　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着住房供应政策、住房市场开放政策以及住房金融政策的陆续出台,我国产业机构逐渐趋向合理,开始朝着优化升级的方向稳步发展。以城市建设,促进小城镇发展,建立经济开发区为主要动力,城市化进程开始了全面推进。由此,房地产业逐渐成为我国主要的经济产业之一,然而由于国家宏观经济政策的调整,市场供需之间以及国际金融政策的收紧等问题,使得房地产行业面临着很高的财务风险。近年来,随着经济的发展,宁阳县在住房建设工作中取得了很大的进步。城乡居民的住房条件逐渐得到改善,有效地缓解了城镇小户型住宅配置不足的局面。但是由于宁阳县地理位置比较偏远,经济相对落后,因此,秀水佳苑项目作为该县域内的高档住宅小区,在项目的开发、建设、预售、销售阶段中,不可避免的受到了市场供需关系的变化、资本结构不合理以及房地产行业本身建设周期长等因素的制约,使得该项目面临着很多财务风险问题。本文以秀水佳苑这一项目作为研究对象,通过理论联系实际、定量与定性分析方法的运用,在吸取借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,从财务风险的基本理论出发,首先对秀水佳苑项目的背景、现状、特点以及房地产财务风险形成机理进行了阐述,指出财务风险形成的影响因素；其次,从财务风险的管理角度出发,分别对秀水佳苑项目的现金流、偿债能力、获利能力等方面进行了详尽地探讨。同时,结合模型构建以及盈亏分析法、敏感性分析法、概率分析等方法,进行实证分析,全方位对该项目的财务风险进行了评估。最后从筹资风险、投资风险、现金流以及回收资金风险等方面,提出只有合理安排资金的期限搭配,合理确定筹资比例,提倡多元化投资,适当投资,保持最佳现金持有度等有效策略,才能全力避免资金回收风险,有效建立资金循环机制和现金预算编制等有效措施。为我国房地产项目的财务风险管理,提供了一定的借鉴。.
[Abstract]:Along with the housing supply policy, the housing market opening policy and the housing finance policy coming out one after another, the industrial organization of our country gradually tends to be reasonable, and begins to develop steadily towards the direction of optimization and upgrading. With urban construction, promoting the development of small towns and establishing economic development zones as the main driving force, the urbanization process began to advance in an all-round way. As a result, the real estate industry has gradually become one of the main economic industries in China. However, due to the adjustment of national macroeconomic policies, the tightening of international financial policies and between the supply and demand of the market, Make real estate industry face very high financial risk. In recent years, with the development of economy, Ningyang County has made great progress in housing construction. The housing conditions of urban and rural residents have been improved gradually, which effectively alleviates the insufficient allocation of small-sized housing in cities and towns. However, because Ningyang County is relatively remote in geographical location and relatively backward in economy, therefore, Xiushui Jiayuan Project, as an upscale residential district in the county area, is in the stages of development, construction, pre-sale and sale of the project. Inevitably due to the change of the market supply and demand, the unreasonable capital structure and the long construction cycle of the real estate industry, the project is faced with a lot of financial risks. This paper takes Xiushui Jiayuan as the object of study, through the application of theory and practice, quantitative and qualitative analysis methods, on the basis of drawing lessons from previous research results, starting from the basic theory of financial risk. Firstly, the background, current situation, characteristics and formation mechanism of real estate financial risk are expounded, and the influencing factors of financial risk formation are pointed out. Secondly, from the perspective of financial risk management, The cash flow, solvency and profitability of Xiushui Jiayuan project are discussed in detail. At the same time, combining the methods of model construction, profit and loss analysis, sensitivity analysis, probability analysis and so on, the paper makes an empirical analysis, and evaluates the financial risk of the project in all directions. Finally, from the aspects of financing risk, investment risk, cash flow and the risk of recovering funds, it is proposed that only a reasonable allocation of the term of the funds should be arranged, a reasonable proportion of the funds should be determined, a diversified investment should be advocated, and an appropriate investment should be made. Only by maintaining the best cash holding and other effective strategies can we avoid the risk of capital recovery and establish effective measures such as cash circulation mechanism and cash budgeting. For our country real estate project financial risk management, provided certain reference.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42

【相似文献】