中国城市住房市场运行质量的价量双维度监测方法

发布时间：2018-05-28 21:09

本文选题：住房市场 + 评价指标　；参考：《城市发展研究》2014年12期

【摘要】：一直以来,房地产市场的运行状况都是社会各界关注的焦点。论文从价量两个维度分别构建"房价合理性指数"和"市场交易活跃性指数",依此对住房市场的运行情况进行综合评价。在价格维度,通过比较实际房价相对于其理论上的合理值的偏离程度,来衡量其合理性;在数量维度,通过比较实际销售概率与建设周期(倒数)之间差异,评价住房市场交易的活跃程度。论文对2011年第1季度到2014年第1季度中国35个大中城市住房市场运行情况进行测算,其结果较好地反映了现实情况,特别是价格和数量两个维度的指数对政策的反馈作用均非常显著:主要城市的房价合理性水平在考察期内呈现先上升后下降再缓慢上升的趋势;而交易活跃性指数则表现出与合理性指数相反的结果。
[Abstract]:All along, the operation of the real estate market is the focus of attention from all walks of life. In this paper, the rationality index of house price and the index of market transaction activity are constructed from the two dimensions of price and quantity, and the operation of housing market is evaluated synthetically. In the price dimension, the rationality of the real house price is measured by comparing the deviation degree of the real house price relative to its reasonable value in theory, while in the quantitative dimension, the difference between the actual sales probability and the construction cycle (reciprocal) is compared. Evaluate the activity of housing market transactions. The paper calculates the housing market of 35 large and medium cities from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2014, and the results reflect the reality. Especially the index of price and quantity has a significant feedback effect on the policy: the reasonable level of house price in major cities increases first then decreases and then rises slowly during the investigation period; On the other hand, the index of transaction activity shows the opposite result with the rationality index.
【作者单位】：清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心清华大学建设管理系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金优秀青年基金项目(71322307) 面上项目(71273154,71373006) 青年项目(71003060) 教育部新世纪人才支持计划(NCET-12-0313) 清华大学自主科研计划项目
【分类号】：F299.23

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