跨期视角下的消费行为、贸易条件与中国经常项目

发布时间：2018-05-31 15:27

本文选题：跨期均衡 + 倾斜消费行为　；参考：《山东师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：从2005年开始，美国房地产市场的火爆和金融资产市场的繁荣发展带动了世界经济增长速度加快，中国出口贸易规模迅速扩大，中国的经常项目顺差因此大幅度增长。随着2008年美国次贷危机爆发，其消费和进口大幅度下降，全球经济陷入低迷，中国经常项目顺差有一定幅度的下降，但仍然处于“高烧不退”的状态。在这一时期，我们也可以发现中国的贸易条件在逐渐恶化。因为一国贸易条件状况代表了一国在国际贸易中的竞争力，所以在我国实现对外贸易规模不断扩大的同时，必须认真研究中国近年来经常项目顺差和贸易条件恶化的深层次原因，为进一步采取可行的宏观调控政策和经济改革政策提供理论支持。本文对经常项目和贸易条件的国内外研究成果进行了梳理，侧重于对跨期均衡分析理论的发展和应用。阐述了跨期均衡理论的历史发展脉络，也简单总结了不同的经济变量对经常项目影响的研究文献。在贸易条件的文献综述方面，阐述了贸易条件恶化论与贫困化增长理论，整理了几种可能导致贸易条件恶化的经济因素，梳理了影响中国贸易条件恶化因素的研究成果。随后对经常项目与消费行为的相互作用过程进行了理论分析和实证检验。通过理论分析分别将平滑消费行为和倾斜消费行为对经常项目的影响分解为平滑性经常项目和倾斜性经常项目。根据理论推断出中国巨额经常项目顺差产生的原因是中国居民倾斜消费行为导致的倾斜性经常项目顺差大于平滑消费行为导致的平滑性经常项目逆差。通过实证检验得出倾斜消费系数为1.26大于1，这说明了该理论模型对中国经常项目解释的合理性。通过雷达、李南的理论模型解释经常项目顺差引起的国际财富向中国转移对中国贸易条件产生有利还是有害的影响，这取决于对一国消费行为的分析，即中国经常项目顺差导致贸易条件恶化是中国特殊消费行为的结果或中国特殊消费行为在外部经济中的表现。特殊消费行为具体体现为构成宏观经济的微观个体偏好于外国商品，偏好于劳动而非闲暇，随后进行的实证分析也证明了经理论推导后得出的结论的合理性。在微观消费行为对宏观经济产生影响的作用机制分析上，本文利用博弈论中囚徒困境模型来分析经常项目顺差和贸易条件恶化背后的微观因素，分别通过两同质消费者博弈、年轻人与老年人的消费博弈、政府向老年人补贴时年轻人和老年人的博弈以及政府向年轻人补贴时年轻人和老年人的博弈几种情况，分析说明了中国居民消费偏低的原因是其消费行为决策陷入了囚徒困境。同时发现政府向年轻人消费策略“多”进行补贴时年轻人和老年人的博弈分析给出了一种摆脱囚徒困境的出路，即解决居民消费不振的一种出路，，这体现在要合理培育年轻人改变不合理的消费偏好，进而会促进生产和消费结构的升级，进而实现中国对外经济平衡，进一步提高国民经济福利。在结论和政策建议方面，得出了两个结论：一是实际经常项目顺差的产生是因为倾斜消费行为对经常项目的影响程度超过平滑消费行为对经常项目影响的结果，大于1的倾斜消费系数在经常项目顺差产生过程中起了重要作用，该系数代表着微观个体向未来消费倾斜的特殊消费行为；二要使经常项目顺差所积累的对外净资产可以真正提升我国社会福利，抑制贸易条件恶化是一个必要条件。本文分析发现经常项目顺差导致贸易条件恶化是由于中国居民不能产生对国内产品的消费偏好，在“劳动-闲暇”选择中过于偏好劳动，抑制了闲暇的消费需求。同时本文给出了可能的政策措施，包括改善供给结构和需求结构的匹配、净化消费环境，促进新型消费形态的发展，加强社会保障体系建设，培育居民对本国产品的忠诚度，企业加强品牌建设，促进居民闲暇消费。最后特别强调培养年轻人合理消费偏好对未来中国经济健康发展的重要意义。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, the booming of the American real estate market and the prosperity and development of the financial assets market have led to the accelerated growth of the world economy, the rapid expansion of China's export trade scale, and the large increase in China's current account surplus. As the American subprime crisis broke out in 2008, its consumption and import fell sharply and the global economy fell into the world. In this period, we can also find that China's terms of trade are deteriorating, because the conditions of a country's trade conditions represent the competitiveness of a country in international trade, so the scale of foreign trade is expanding in our country. At the same time, we must carefully study the deep reasons of China's current account surplus and the deterioration of the trade conditions in recent years, and provide theoretical support for the further adoption of feasible macroeconomic regulation policies and economic reform policies.
This paper combs the domestic and foreign research achievements of current account and trade conditions, focuses on the development and application of the theory of intertemporal equilibrium analysis, expounds the historical development of the theory of cross term equilibrium, and briefly summarizes the research literature on the influence of different economic variables on the current account. The theory of the deterioration of trade conditions and the theory of impoverished growth has been made, and several economic factors that may cause the deterioration of the trade conditions have been sorted out, and the results of the factors affecting the deterioration of China's trade conditions have been combed.
Then the interaction process of the current account and the consumer behavior is analyzed theoretically and empirically. Through the theoretical analysis, the effects of the smooth consumption behavior and the slant consumption behavior on the current account are decomposed into the smooth current account and the sloping current account. The reason is that the sloping current account surplus caused by the inclined consumption behavior of Chinese residents is greater than the smooth current account deficit caused by the smooth consumption behavior. By the empirical test, the inclined consumption coefficient is 1.26 greater than 1, which shows that the theoretical model is rational to the Chinese regular account interpretation. The theoretical model of Li Nan is solved by radar. The transfer of international wealth from the current account surplus to China has a favorable or harmful effect on China's trade conditions, which depends on the analysis of the consumption behavior of a country, that is, the deterioration of the trade conditions caused by China's current account surplus is the result of China's special consumption behavior or the performance of China's special consumption behavior in the external economy. The specific consumption behavior is embodied in the macro economy as the micro individual preference for foreign goods, preference for labor rather than leisure. The subsequent empirical analysis also proves the reasonableness of the conclusions derived from the theoretical deduction.
In the analysis of the impact mechanism of micro consumption behavior on the macro-economy, this paper uses the prisoner dilemma model in game theory to analyze the micro factors behind the current account surplus and the deterioration of the trade conditions, through the two homogeneity consumer game, the elimination game between the young and the elderly, the government to the elderly and the young people when the government subsidize them. The game of the elderly and the game of the game between the young and the elderly when the government subsidized the young people showed that the reason for the low consumption of the Chinese residents was that the decision of their consumption behavior fell into the prisoner's dilemma. At the same time, the game analysis of the young and the elderly was found out when the government subsidized the "more" of the young people's consumption strategy. A way out of the prisoner's dilemma is to solve the poor consumption of the residents, which is reflected in the rational cultivation of young people to change the irrational consumption preference, and then to promote the upgrading of the production and consumption structure, thus realizing the balance of China's foreign economy and further improving the economic welfare of the country and the people.
In the conclusion and policy recommendations, two conclusions are drawn: first, the actual current account surplus is produced because the impact of the slant consumption behavior on the current account is more than the effect of the smooth consumption behavior on the current account. The higher than 1 of the inclined consumption coefficient plays an important role in the production of the current account surplus. It represents the special consumption behavior that the micro individual inclining to the future consumption; two the external net assets accumulated by the current account surplus can really improve the social welfare of our country, and restrain the deterioration of the trade conditions is a necessary condition. The consumption preference of domestic products, in the choice of "labor leisure", is too preference for labor and restraining the consumption demand of leisure. At the same time, the possible policy measures are given, including improving the matching of the supply structure and demand structure, purifying the consumption environment, promoting the development of new consumption form, strengthening the construction of social security system and cultivating the residents. For the loyalty of domestic products, the enterprise strengthens the brand construction and promotes the leisure consumption of the residents. Finally, it emphasizes the importance of cultivating the reasonable consumption preference of young people to the healthy development of China's economy in the future.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.6;F126.1

【参考文献】