供给侧结构性改革战略下信贷集中风险演化特征和监管对策

发布时间：2018-05-31 17:31

本文选题：供给侧结构性改革 + 信贷集中　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：政府主导的四万亿经济刺激计划使得信贷进入的高速、持续增长期。在信贷高速增长的温床下,经济也快速发展,但进入“新常态”后,经济发展速度放缓,且因为存在着一系列结构性矛盾,如持续上升的生产成本、不断下降的资本边际效率、错位配置的产品供需、以及运行不畅的市场机制等突出的结构性问题,经济下行压力的乌云笼罩在人们心头,各种潜在风险的危害性不容低估。为此,三去一降一补的供给侧结构性改革,由习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组会议上着重提出。在过去几年,信贷投放多集中在制造业、房地产业等“高产能”、“高库存“的行业。信贷投放趋利避害,向沿海城市、向产能过剩、库存过多、杠杆率程度过大的行业和地区集中,这从本质上来讲即是供给侧的问题。信贷过度集中给经济可能带来的系统性、积累性、毁灭性的影响同样也不容忽视。本文从信贷风险的一般界定开始写起,介绍了信贷集中的相关理论,并阐述了信贷集中的一般测量方法。通过收集整理我国具有代表性的国有商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行中11家上市银行的数据、测量相关指标我们发现,信贷集中主要表现在信贷客户集中、信贷行业集中、信贷地域集中等几个方面。鉴于供给侧结构性改革于2015年底提出,目前可查询的信贷数据多截止于2015年底,故此本文由供给侧结构性改革对宏观经济运行的影响出发,预测和估计信贷集中在2015年后的演化表现:信贷集中由制造业、房地产行业转向要素驱动型、集约型行业。关注近年来的金融危机,如啤酒花事件、由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机我们可以看到信贷集中风险对于宏观经济的系统性、积累性、毁灭性的影响。由于信贷集中涉及方方面面、各行各业,也对信贷集中风险的协同监管提出了新的要求。为此,我们可以通过加强银行业、证券业、保险业以及中央银行和银监会等部门的协同监管,防范和化解信贷集中风险。通过改善金融生态环境提高银行信贷投放积极性、重新定位信贷集中监管的价值目标、改变商业银行经营观念、建立风险预警线,以期促进经济的持续稳健运行。
[Abstract]:The government-led 4 trillion stimulus package allowed credit to enter a period of high-speed and sustained growth. Under the hotbed of rapid credit growth, the economy has also developed rapidly, but after entering the "new normal", the economic development rate has slowed down, and because of a series of structural contradictions, such as rising production costs, declining marginal efficiency of capital, The misplaced supply and demand of products, as well as the poor market mechanism and other prominent structural problems, economic downward pressure clouds in people's minds, the harm of various potential risks should not be underestimated. To this end, the supply-side structural reform of "three go, one drop and one supplement" was emphatically put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic leading Group. In the past few years, credit has been concentrated in industries such as manufacturing, real estate and other "high-capacity" and "high-inventory" industries. Credit flows to coastal cities, overcapacity, overstocking, and over-leveraged industries and regions are essentially supply-side problems. The possible systemic, cumulative and devastating effects of excessive concentration of credit on the economy should also be ignored. This paper begins with the general definition of credit risk, introduces the relevant theories of credit concentration, and expounds the general measurement methods of credit concentration. By collecting and collating the data of 11 listed banks in China's representative state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks and urban commercial banks, we find that the credit concentration is mainly manifested in the credit customer concentration. Credit industry concentration, credit regional concentration and other aspects. Since the supply-side structural reform was proposed at the end of 2015, and most of the available credit data ended at the end of 2015, this paper starts with the impact of supply-side structural reform on the macroeconomic operation. Forecast and estimate the evolution performance of credit concentration after 2015: credit concentration from manufacturing, real estate industry to factor driven, intensive industry. Focusing on the recent financial crises, such as hops, and the financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, we can see the systemic, cumulative and destructive effects of credit concentration risk on the macroeconomic. Because credit centralization involves all aspects, various industries also put forward new requirements for credit concentration risk coordination supervision. To this end, we can prevent and defuse credit concentration risk by strengthening the coordinated supervision of banking, securities, insurance and other departments such as the Central Bank and the Banking Regulatory Commission. By improving the financial ecological environment, improving the enthusiasm of bank credit, repositioning the value target of centralized supervision of credit, changing the management concept of commercial banks and establishing a risk warning line, we hope to promote the sustained and steady operation of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4

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