山东省房地产投资与其经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 00:06

本文选题：区域经济 + 山东省　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费、出口以及投资是推动经济持续、稳定发展的重要因素,但是2008年在全世界范围内爆发了金融危机,我国的经济也呈现出持续低迷的状态,社会消费普遍降低,同时受到全球经济大环境的影响,消费以及出口对于经济的拉动作用受到一定程度的阻碍。基于此,在过去的一段时间里,我国主要利用投资手段刺激经济的进一步发展。与此同时,鉴于房地产行业一方面能够吸引企业进行投资,另一方面能够推进城市化建设进程,因而我国选择房地产投资来为经济的可持续发展提供动力。伴随着时间的推移,越来越多的社会资本开始重视并进入房地产市场,使得原本就火爆的房地产行业在各个行业中占据优势。虽然房地产投资的飞速发展刺激了GDP的增长,推动了城市化进程,但是我们也不能忽视其引发的负面影响,例如,房价持续走高,政府无法偿还债务,经济结构不健全等。从某种程度上说,房地产市场能够对宏观经济的未来发展方向产生影响,关乎着广大人民群众的切实利益。基于此,相关领域的专家学者必须重视对房地产投资与经济增长之间关系的分析研究,以便为我国经济的持续、稳定发展提供强有力的理论支撑。本文在撰写的过程中首先对山东经济的发展现状以及房地产投资的相关情况进行了详细介绍,然后选取1990年到2015年间山东省房地产投资的相关统计数据作为研究对象,然后通过使用协整检验等多种计量方法展开实证分析工作。相关数据结果表明,房地产投资确实能够推动经济的持续、稳定增长,并且从长远情况来看,二者之间的关系也较为牢固。在近期之内,房地产投资提高1%的同时,经济也会产生0.11902%的增长;放眼于未来,房地产投资提高1%的同时,经济会产生0.59%的增长。由此我们得出,随着时间的推移,房地产投资对经济增长的推动作用越来越明显。但是就目前而言,虽然山东省的房地产投资在一定程度上仍然能够推动经济的发展,但是我们能够明显感受到这种推动力的后劲不足,未能为经济的发展提供源源不断的动力。除此之外,上述经济系统所具有的自我调节能力较为突出,能够进行自主的管理与控制,假设经济出现了短时间的波动,经济系统会通过收敛机制,不断降低由波动造成的影响,将其维持在均衡状态。基于此种情况,本文在分析、研究山东省房地产行业发展现状的基础上,提出了一系列行之有效的建议与方法。
[Abstract]:Consumption, export and investment are important factors to promote the sustained and stable development of the economy. However, the financial crisis broke out in the world in 2008, and the economy of our country has also shown a sustained downturn, and social consumption has generally decreased. At the same time, under the influence of the global economic environment, consumption and export are hindered to some extent. Based on this, in the past period of time, our country mainly uses investment means to stimulate the further development of the economy. At the same time, in view of the real estate industry can attract enterprises to invest on the one hand, on the other hand, can promote the urbanization construction process, so our country chooses the real estate investment to provide the motive force for the sustainable development of the economy. With the passage of time, more and more social capital begin to pay attention to and enter the real estate market. Although the rapid development of real estate investment stimulates the growth of GDP and promotes the process of urbanization, we can not ignore the negative effects caused by it, such as the rising house prices, the inability of the government to repay debts, the imperfect economic structure and so on. To a certain extent, the real estate market can influence the future development direction of the macro economy, which is related to the real interests of the broad masses of the people. Based on this, experts and scholars in related fields must attach importance to the analysis and study of the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth, in order to provide a strong theoretical support for the sustained and stable development of China's economy. In the course of writing, this paper firstly introduces the current situation of Shandong's economy and the related situation of real estate investment, and then selects the relevant statistical data of Shandong's real estate investment from 1990 to 2015 as the research object. Then through the use of cointegration test and other measurement methods to carry out empirical analysis. The results show that real estate investment can indeed drive sustained and stable growth, and in the long run, the relationship between the two is relatively strong. In the near term, real estate investment will rise by 1 percent, while the economy will also generate 0.11902 percent growth; in the future, real estate investment will increase by 1 percent, while the economy will generate 0.59 percent growth. From this we draw, with the passage of time, real estate investment to promote economic growth more and more obvious. But at present, although the real estate investment in Shandong Province can still promote the economic development to a certain extent, we can obviously feel that this kind of driving force is not enough, and can not provide a continuous driving force for the economic development. In addition, the self-regulating ability of the above-mentioned economic system is more prominent, and it can be managed and controlled autonomously. If the economy fluctuates for a short period of time, the economic system will pass the convergence mechanism. Continuously reduce the impact caused by fluctuations and maintain them in equilibrium. Based on this situation, this paper puts forward a series of effective suggestions and methods on the basis of analyzing and studying the present situation of the real estate industry in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F127

【参考文献】