高速铁路对沿线站点城市房地产价格影响力的时效类型实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 04:47

本文选题：高速铁路 + 房地产价格　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以京沪高铁为例,通过构建“可对比城市群”,采用基于“自然实验”思想的双重差分估计法,较为准确地测度了高速铁路的规划出台、动工建设及开通运营对沿线站点城市平均房价的不同影响时效,并进一步探究了高速铁路这种房价驱动效应的动态变化趋势。研究表明,高速铁路对其沿线站点城市平均房价的影响力受三种驱动效应的共同作用,即供给侧的地价推升效应、房地产商的竞争效应及需求侧的需求拉动效应。这三种房价驱动效应在高速铁路建设进程中的不同阶段呈现出不同的强度,进而演化出不同的综合效应。以京沪高铁为例,在建设规划的出台期,由于新房地产商同既存房地产商之间尚未构成实质性的竞争以及购房需求者尚未形成立即购房的意愿,京沪高铁建设规划的出台并没有对站点城市的平均房价带来显著的推动作用;在项目的动工建设期,由于新房地产商同既存房地产商的竞争程度较弱,而始于规划期的地价推升效应与新增购房者的需求拉动效应的联合效应占据了主导地位,因而导致京沪高铁的开工建设对沿线站点城市的房价呈现出显著的正向促进作用,具体而言,在较为完备地控制了其他影响因素的情况下,京沪高铁的正式开工建设使沿线站点城市的商品房平均价格上涨了约3.70%,且这种正向的房价驱动效应存在2年左右的延时;在京沪高铁的开通运营期,由于新进驻房地产商同既存房地产商的竞争效应日趋激烈,以至超过了积累了两期的地价推升效应与新增购房者的需求拉动效应的联合效应,京沪高铁的正式开通运营不但未对站点城市的平均房价带来显著的推动作用,反而表现出显著的抑制作用,具体而言,京沪高铁的正式开通运营对沿线站点城市商品房平均价格的抑制作用为3.81%,且这种对于房价的抑制效应存在1年左右的延时。
[Abstract]:Taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, by constructing "comparable urban agglomeration" and adopting the method of double difference estimation based on "natural experiment", the planning of high-speed railway is measured more accurately. The effect of construction and operation on the average housing price of the city along the railway station is different, and the dynamic trend of the price driving effect of high speed railway is further explored. The research shows that the influence of high-speed railway on the average housing price of the city along the railway station is affected by three driving effects, namely, the supply-side land price push effect, the competition effect of the real estate developer and the demand-driven effect of the demand side. These three kinds of price-driven effects show different intensities in different stages of high-speed railway construction, and then evolve different comprehensive effects. Take the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, in the period of construction planning, since there has not been substantial competition between the new real estate developers and the existing real estate developers, and the buyers have not yet formed the will to purchase houses immediately. The introduction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail construction plan has not significantly promoted the average housing prices of the site cities; during the construction period of the project, the degree of competition between the new real estate developers and the existing real estate developers was weak. However, the combined effect of the land price boost effect, which began in the planning period, and the demand pull effect of the new buyers occupied a dominant position, which led to the construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail project showing a significant positive promotion effect on the housing prices of the cities along the railway stations. Specifically, where other factors are more fully controlled, The official construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has caused the average price of commercial housing in the cities along the railway stations to rise by about 3.70 percent, and this positive housing price driving effect has been delayed for about two years; in the opening period of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line, Due to the increasingly fierce competition between new property developers and existing real estate developers, it exceeds the combined effect of the accumulation of two periods of land price boost effect and the demand pull effect of new buyers. The official opening and operation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has not only not significantly promoted the average housing prices of the station cities, but on the contrary, it has shown a significant restraining effect. Specifically, The official opening and operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has a restraining effect of 3.81% on the average price of commercial housing in the cities along the line, and there is a delay of about one year on the inhibition effect of this kind of housing price.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F532

【参考文献】