龙湖地产企业价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 13:11

本文选题：企业价值 + 价值评估　；参考：《青岛理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代,现代企业价值评估方法进入我国,经过20多年的发展和磨合,逐渐形成了适合我国国情的评估体系。评估结果应用范围也由最初的企业产权变动扩大到投资理财和公司治理领域,应用性越来越强。本文通过对龙湖地产企业价值进行评估来确定其价值是否被投资者低估,为投资者进行投资决策提供了一条理性的思路。首先,本文对龙湖地产的基本情况及评估方法的适用性做了论述。通过对龙湖地产近年运营状况进行分析可以得出,龙湖地产已经形成了自己的核心竞争力,是一家资产规模发展快、盈利能力好、资产质量运行稳健、具有先进管理理念和良好风险控制能力的优秀房地产公司。龙湖地产占用了较多的股权资金,企业未来预期收益额较大,传统的评估方法并不能很好的反映龙湖地产企业价值。EVA评估模型合理的考虑了股权资金成本,通过对会计数据进行调整,评估价值更加符合企业的客观实际情况。通过对各个方法的比较分析,最终选用EVA方法对龙湖地产企业价值进行评估。其次,本文对EVA模型的基本原理、应用条件及重要指标参数进行了说明,重点论述了所需调整的会计项目。十八世纪末斯图尔特对剩余收益学说进行完善,提出了EVA的概念,EVA是指企业税后净营业利润减除股东及债权人所投入的资金成本之后的余额。在计算EVA值时需要调整调整相应的会计项目,包括研发费用、商誉、递延所得税及减值准备金等。会计项目是否需要调整遵循适用型、重要性、易理解性及可比性等原则。在此基础上,对未来EVA的折现模型做了简单介绍。再次,本文结合龙湖地产的经营数据对其企业价值进行了评估。评估历史EVA时,按照之前章节的叙述对其历史数据进行了调整,合理的确定了其加权资金成本率。在预测EVA时,本文考虑到了土地储备量对于企业未来发展的影响,根据龙湖地产的实际土地储备,对其未来发展期间进行了假定。在对各个数据预测方法进行比较后,本文选定指数平滑法进行预测。最后,本文对龙湖地产企业价值评估结果进行了分析,并与证券市场上的价格进行比较,发现每股股价评估值大于其市场价格。因此,本文认为龙湖地产的企业价值存在被低估的可能,而这种低估可能是由于投资者未考虑到企业持续获利能力造成的,结合龙湖地产的运营及财务状况,得出龙湖地产具有较高投资价值的结论。
[Abstract]:In the 1980s, the modern enterprise value evaluation method came into our country. After more than 20 years of development and running-in, the evaluation system suitable for the national conditions of our country was gradually formed. The scope of application of the evaluation results is extended from the initial change of enterprise property rights to the field of investment and financial management and corporate governance, and the application is becoming stronger and stronger. This paper evaluates the value of Longhu real estate enterprise to determine whether its value is undervalued by investors, which provides an orderly way of thinking for investors to make investment decisions. This paper discusses the basic situation of Longhu real estate and the applicability of evaluation method. Through the analysis of the operating conditions of Longhu real estate in recent years, it can be concluded that Longhu real estate has formed its own core competitiveness. It is an asset with rapid development, good profitability and stable operation of asset quality. Has the advanced management idea and the good risk control ability outstanding real estate company. Longhu real estate occupies a lot of equity funds, and the expected income of enterprises in the future is large. The traditional evaluation method can not reflect the value of Longhu real estate enterprises. Eva evaluation model reasonably considers the cost of equity capital. By adjusting the accounting data, the evaluation value is more in line with the objective actual situation of the enterprise. Through the comparison and analysis of each method, EVA method is used to evaluate the value of real estate enterprises in Longhu. Secondly, the basic principle, application conditions and important index parameters of EVA model are explained in this paper. The accounting items that need to be adjusted are discussed emphatically. At the end of the 18th century, Stewart perfected the theory of residual income, and put forward the concept of EVA. Eva refers to the balance of the net operating profit after tax, after the cost of capital invested by shareholders and creditors is deducted. In calculating EVA value, the corresponding accounting items should be adjusted, including R & D expenses, goodwill, deferred income tax and impairment reserve, etc. Whether accounting items need to be adjusted to follow the principles of applicability, importance, comprehensibility and comparability. On this basis, the discount model of EVA in the future is briefly introduced. Thirdly, this paper evaluates the enterprise value of EVA with the management data of Longhu real estate. When evaluating historical EVA, it adjusts its historical data according to the previous chapters, and reasonably determines its weighted capital cost ratio. In the prediction of EVA, this paper takes into account the influence of land reserve on the future development of enterprises, and according to the actual land reserve of Longhu real estate, the future development period is assumed. After comparing various data forecasting methods, this paper chooses exponential smoothing method to forecast. Finally, this paper analyzes the value evaluation results of Longhu real estate enterprises, and compares them with the prices in the stock market. It is found that the valuation value of each share price is greater than its market price. Therefore, this paper holds that the enterprise value of Longhu real estate is likely to be underestimated, and this undervaluation may be caused by the failure of investors to consider the sustainable profitability of the enterprise, combined with the operation and financial situation of Longhu real estate. The conclusion that Longhu real estate has higher investment value.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.42;F272.5

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