蕴含区域风险因素的中小企业信用风险评价问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 20:07

本文选题：信用风险 + 区域风险　；参考：《山东财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自20世纪90年代以来，随着市场经济制度的不断完善，中小企业在国民经济中的作用日益凸显。中小企业是现代市场经济中对市场机制反映最灵敏、最具活力的组成部分，在刺激经济增长、促进产业竞争、推进产业创新、改善人民生活、吸纳社会剩余劳动力等方面发挥着无可替代的作用。据工商联统计数据显示，在我国企业总数中，中小企业占比超过99%，对我国的GDP的贡献达68%，对外贸的贡献达68%，对税收的贡献达52%，提供了80%的城镇就业岗位和82%的新产品开发，已然成为我国国民经济和社会发展的重要力量。然而，制约我国中小企业生存和发展的融资难题依旧突出，在新的经营环境下，中小企业融资难还出现了一些新的特点：一是随着货币政策取向由宽松转向稳健，银根逐步收紧，融资难由以前主要体现为市场难、订单难转变为主要是资金难；二是随着融资成本的不断上升，以前主要体现为中小企业“融资难”，现在更集中反映为中小企业“融资贵”；三是中小企业提供信用有限，与银行间信息不对称，融资时品种单一，贷款“长”变“短”现象严重，区域互保关系明显。种种问题无疑进一步加剧了中小企业融资困难现象。特别是13来随着经济增速放缓，银行“钱荒”问题的出现，国内制造业普遍面临产能过剩的局面，中小企业间低端同类产品的无序竞争，民间融资行为日益活跃，以互保网络为担保基础的中小企业正在面临新一轮的区域金融风险。但是，目前国内理论界对影响中小企业信用风险的区域金融因素分析尚处于探索阶段，在授信操作、风险控制等方面的理念、技术等方面也与国际先进银行具备一定差距。现阶段国内商业银行采用的信用风险模型主要基于借款企业的财务报表而进行的定量分析模型以及基于企业自身发展情况而做的定性分析模型，然而对于企业所处的区域金融环境以及企业主营行业的地区产业链往往采取主观评价的方法。因此，基于区域金融环境下的中小企业信用风险研究这一课题对于完善我国商业银行对于中小企业信用风险的度量方法，进一步加强我国商业银行抵御中小企业信用风险的能力具有比较重要的现实意义和实用价值。本文在结合选题背景的基础上，综述相关理论及研究方法，第二章对中小企业、基于商业银行视角的中小企业信用风险以及当前金融环境下中小企业所面临的区域风险进行界定。第三章分析中小企业信用风险成因，主要从宏观经济因素（国内生产总值、生产者物价指数、房地产价格指数）、区域风险因素（区域既有风险因素、区域外部经济环境、区域偶发性风险因素）、企业自身因素（包括企业偿债能力、盈利能力、运营能力、成长能力）等层面出发，进而分析影响中小企业信用风险不同层面因素见的耦合关系。在第三章的基础上，在第四章中首先简述现有的中小企业信用风险评价模型，进而构建蕴含区域风险因素的中小企业信用风险评价模型，进而基于AHP法分析区域风险因素指标对中小企业信用风险的影响程度，最后构建蕴含区域风险因素的中小企业信用风险评价AHP-Logistic模型。第五章中首先将山东省划分为四区域，根据区域风险指标体系测算各区域区域风险值，进而选取山东省76家中小企业样本并按各自区域划分，对样本中小企业进行实证研究。最后通过实证得出结论，蕴含区域风险因素的中小企业信用风险评价模型有效的提升了传统Logistic模型精确度。第六章中进而基于商业银行视角对于中小企业信用风险的控制作出建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous improvement of the market economy system, the role of small and medium-sized enterprises in the national economy has become increasingly prominent. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the most sensitive and dynamic component of the market mechanism in the modern market economy, which are stimulating economic growth, promoting industry competition, promoting industrial innovation, improving people's life and absorbing. The social surplus labor force plays an irreplaceable role. According to the statistics of the Federation of industry and commerce, small and medium-sized enterprises accounted for more than 99% of the total number of enterprises in our country, contributed 68% to China's GDP, contributed 68% to foreign trade, contributed 52% to tax revenue, and provided 80% of urban jobs and 82% of new product development. The important force of national economic and social development.
However, the financing problems that restrict the survival and development of small and medium enterprises in China still stand out. Under the new operating environment, small and medium-sized enterprises have some new characteristics. First, with the monetary policy orientation from loose to steady, the money is gradually tightened, the difficulty of financing is difficult to be reflected by the former owners, and the difficulty in order to change is mainly capital. The two is that with the rising of the financing cost, the former is mainly reflected in the "financing difficulty" of small and medium enterprises, and now it is more concentrated on the "financing expensive" for small and medium enterprises; the three is that the small and medium enterprises provide the limited credit, the asymmetric information between the banks, the single variety of the financing, the "short" phenomenon of the loan, and the regional mutual insurance relations. Obviously, all kinds of problems have undoubtedly exacerbated the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in 13, with the slowdown of the economic growth and the emergence of the "money shortage" problem, the domestic manufacturing industry generally faces the situation of overcapacity, the disordered competition of the low end similar products among the small and medium enterprises, the increasingly active folk financing behavior, and the mutual insurance network as a burden. The small and medium-sized enterprises that support the foundation are facing a new round of regional financial risks.
However, the analysis of regional financial factors affecting credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises is still in the exploration stage at present, and there is a gap between the ideas of credit operation, risk control and so on with the international advanced banks. At present, the credit risk model used by domestic commercial banks is mainly based on the money of the borrowers. The quantitative analysis model of the business report and the qualitative analysis model based on the development of the enterprise, however, it often takes the subjective evaluation method for the regional financial environment and the regional industrial chain of the enterprise's main industry. Therefore, the research on the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises based on the regional financial environment It is of great practical significance and practical value to improve the measurement method of credit risk for small and medium-sized enterprises in China's commercial banks and to further strengthen the ability of Chinese commercial banks to resist the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises.
On the basis of the background of topic selection, this paper summarizes related theories and research methods, and the second chapter defines SMEs, credit risk of small and medium enterprises based on commercial banks and the regional risks faced by small and medium enterprises under the current financial environment. The third chapter analyzes the causes of SMEs' credit risk, mainly from macroeconomic factors. (gross domestic product, producer price index, real estate price index), regional risk factors (regional risk factors, regional external economic environment, regional incidental risk factors), enterprise self factors (including enterprise solvency, profitability, operational power, growth ability), and then analyze the impact of SME credit On the basis of the third chapter, on the basis of the third chapter, the existing credit risk evaluation model of small and medium enterprises is briefly introduced in the fourth chapter, and then the credit risk evaluation model of small and medium enterprises with regional risk factors is constructed, and then based on the AHP method, the image of regional risk factors is analyzed for the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises. In the fifth chapter, Shandong is divided into four regions in the fifth chapter, and the regional risk values are calculated according to the regional risk index system, and then 76 small and medium-sized enterprises in Shandong province are selected and divided according to their respective regions. The final conclusion is that the credit risk evaluation model of small and medium enterprises with regional risk factors effectively improves the accuracy of the traditional Logistic model. In the sixth chapter, the credit risk control of small and medium-sized enterprises is proposed based on the commercial bank perspective.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F276.3;F832.4

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