房地产周期中政策因素影响分析：理论与实证

发布时间：2018-06-24 22:15

本文选题：房地产周期 + 政策　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：过去十几年中,中国房地产市场的发展趋势是整体上升的,但是期间有明显的繁荣阶段和萧条阶段,呈现出显著的周期波动现象。政府为了房地产市场的健康稳定发展,频繁出台调控政策,但是政策最终并未达到平抑市场波动的效果,反而成为下一轮波动产生的诱因,使得我国市场的波动更为频繁和剧烈。本文通过从宏观到微观,从整体到局部的视角,运用理论和实证分析工具剖析了调控政策在我国房地产周期波动中的影响。首先,运用HP滤波法验证我国房地产整体周期波动的存在性,同时通过构建动态不一致模型解释政策引起波动的方式和路径。其次,本文运用EOF模型分析我国房地产区域性周期波动的差异性,论述政策在差异化市场环境下对周期波动的不同影响；最后,基于行为经济学理论构建房地产行为机制模型,分析政策对波动的影响。文本的主要结论为：1.从1998年到2012年我国房地产经历了4次半周期；2.我国房地产区域性周期波动的差异化明显；3.政策是房地产周期波动变化的重要原因；4.增加交易环节税费将加剧房地产周期波动。
[Abstract]:In the past ten years, the development trend of China's real estate market has been on the rise as a whole, but during the period there are obvious boom and bust stages, showing a significant cyclical fluctuations. For the sake of the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, the government has frequently introduced regulatory policies, but the policy has not finally achieved the effect of stabilizing the market fluctuations, but on the contrary has become an inducement for the next round of fluctuations. Make the fluctuation of our country market more frequent and violent. From the macro to micro perspective, from the whole to the local perspective, this paper analyzes the impact of the regulation and control policies on the periodic fluctuations of real estate in China by using theoretical and empirical analysis tools. Firstly, HP filtering method is used to verify the existence of the whole cycle fluctuation of real estate in China, and the dynamic inconsistent model is constructed to explain the way and path of the fluctuation caused by the policy. Secondly, this paper uses EOF model to analyze the difference of regional periodic fluctuation of real estate in our country, and discusses the different influence of policy on cycle fluctuation under the environment of differentiated market. Finally, based on the theory of behavioral economics, the paper constructs the behavior mechanism model of real estate. Analyze the impact of policy on volatility. The main conclusion of the text is: 1. From 1998 to 2012, China's real estate experienced four half-cycle. The differentiation of regional periodic fluctuation of real estate in China is obviously 3. 3%. Policy is an important reason for the fluctuation of real estate cycle. Increased transaction link taxes and fees will intensify the cycle of real estate fluctuations.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】