中国城市化的驱动力:基于空间滞后面板模型的分析

发布时间：2018-06-27 17:17

本文选题：城市化 + 动力机制　；参考：《经济问题探索》2014年06期

【摘要】：作为复杂的社会经济空间变迁的动态过程,城市化由社会、经济、文化、政治等经济与非经济因素共同作用所致,其不仅必须是适应一定条件、能实现以及可持续的城市化,而且应具有与时俱进、因地制宜、循序渐进、优质高效的特征,更应与以人为本、和谐发展的理论一脉相承。通过采用要素结构、需求结构、空间结构及产业结构四个指标,对中国城市化驱动力进行空间滞后面板模型分析可知:中国城市化整体上具有典型的投资驱动、要素驱动及资本驱动的特征。为与"十二五"规划中"五年提高4%"的注重质量型城市化推进的发展思路和与东部沿海地区率先基本实现现代化的重要举措相吻合。应采取以下对策建议:一是,在对城市化发展规律正确认识与把握的基础上提高城市化质量;二是,在突破要素流动障碍的基础上实现关键领域制度创新;三是,在加快基础设施建设的基础上优化城市空间体系;四是,在发展低碳技术的基础上促进产业结构高级化;五是,在产业高级化发展的基础上有效解决房地产"泡沫"问题。
[Abstract]:As a complex dynamic process of social and economic spatial change, urbanization is caused by social, economic, cultural, political and other economic and non-economic factors, which must not only adapt to certain conditions, but also be able to achieve sustainable urbanization. Moreover, it should have the characteristics of keeping pace with the times, adapting measures to local conditions, gradual, high quality and high efficiency, and should be inherited from the theory of people-oriented and harmonious development. By adopting the four indexes of factor structure, demand structure, spatial structure and industrial structure, the paper analyzes the driving force of China's urbanization by using the spatial lag panel model, which shows that China's urbanization as a whole has a typical investment drive. The characteristics of factor-driven and capital-driven. It coincides with the development idea of "five year increase of 4%" in the "12th Five-Year Plan" and the important measures of taking the lead in realizing modernization in the eastern coastal areas. The following countermeasures should be adopted: first, to improve the quality of urbanization on the basis of a correct understanding and grasp of the laws of urbanization development; second, to achieve institutional innovation in key areas on the basis of breaking through obstacles to the flow of elements; and third, to improve the quality of urbanization. On the basis of speeding up the construction of infrastructure, optimizing the urban space system; fourth, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure on the basis of the development of low-carbon technology; and fifth, effectively solving the "bubble" problem of real estate on the basis of industrial upgrading and development.
【作者单位】：暨南大学;中国社会科学院;南阳师范学院;
【基金】：广东省人文社科重点研究基地重点项目“珠江三角洲服务型工业化研究(批准号:11JDXM79007)” 南阳师范学院校级项目“要素配置演化与区域协调发展:国内价值链和全球价值链(编号:70598)”的资助
【分类号】：F299.2

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