中国城市住宅财富效应研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 02:43

本文选题：住宅财富效应 + 城市住宅市场　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年以来,随着住宅市场的改革,城市居民的居住水平有了明显提高。城市居民的人均住房建筑面积,已从1998年的18.70平方米上升到2012年的32.90平方米；并且越来越多的城市家庭拥有自己的住房。与此同时,住房价格也一直保持上涨势头,1998年城市住宅商品房销售价格为1854元/平方米,2012年上涨至5791元/平方米,涨幅为312.35%。房价的持续上涨一方面使拥有自有住房的城市家庭住宅资产增值,但另一方面也加剧了购房家庭的住房支出压力。住宅财富的分配不均进一步拉大了地区之间以及城市家庭内部之间的贫富差距,城市住宅市场的“马太效应”日渐显著。因此,研究住宅财富效应的存在性、差异性和作用机制将进一步丰富住宅财富效应理论,同时为政府调控房市政策提供理论依据,也有利于促进经济社会协调发展,全面提升城市居民的生活幸福感。本文重点解决以下三个问题：第一,中国城市家庭住宅财富效应是否存在-降低了家庭预防性储蓄还是挤占了家庭非住房消费；第二,住宅财富效应在不同住宅产权、住宅获取方式、年龄段、收入水平、区域和时期是否有所不同；第三,住宅资产具有消费品和投资品的双重属性,不同属性在预防性储蓄动机和流动性约束存在的情况下其财富效应是否有所区别。全文共分成五部分,第一章是绪论部分,主要介绍本文的研究背景和研究意义,在回顾国内外文献的基础上,对本文的创新性进行说明。第二章是简单介绍生命周期-持久收入理论和住宅财富效应理论,并推导住宅财富效应数学模型。第三章从宏观视角出发,采用35个大中城市1998-2011年年度数据,使用Panel Data模型分析住宅财富效应的存在性,在此基础上进一步考察住宅财富效应的区域和时期差异性。第四章从微观视角出发,利用2010年中国家庭金融调查数据分析住宅财富效应的存在性、差异性和作用机制。最后基于实证分析的基础,总结本文的主要结论并给出相应的政策建议。主要结论：(1)宏观层面,中国35个大中城市住宅财富效应存在但表现微弱,且住宅财富效应的区域差异性和时期差异性都较大。东部城市具备住宅财富效应,中部城市挤占效应存在但不显著,西部城市住房挤占效应明显；地区经济越发达、居民收入水平越高,住宅财富效应也越大,表明中国城市住宅市场的“马太效应”日益显著。房改初期,城市住宅市场存在一定的挤占效应；2003年伴随房价迅速上涨,住宅财富效应逐渐显现；但金融危机后房价的过快上涨以及房地产市场的投机效应明显,使城市住宅市场的财富效应逐渐下降。(2)微观层面,中国城市家庭住宅财富效应存在但总体上表现微弱；随着住宅资产的增多,住宅财富效应也相应增大；但预期短期内房价过快上涨抑制了住宅财富效应的发挥。中国城市家庭住宅财富效应在不同住宅产权、住宅获取方式、不同年龄段、收入水平和地区间差异巨大。产权完备且合法的大产权住房能够产生较为显著的住宅财富效应,小产权住房则不具备住宅财富效应。市场方式获取的住房可以产生显著的住宅财富效应,而非市场方式获取的住房则挤占效应明显。住宅财富效应在中年户主家庭普遍存在,青年户主家庭的财富效应不明朗,而老年户主家庭则挤占效应明显。处于经济发达地区且收入水平越高的城市家庭其住宅财富效应也相应越大,表明中国城市住宅市场的“马太效应”显著。住宅财富的分配不均进一步拉大了东中西部地区和城市家庭内部的贫富差距。产权完备且合法的大产权住房通过降低预防性储蓄动机产生了较为显著的住宅财富效应；但无法通过缓解流动性约束来产生财富效应。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the reform of the housing market, the living standard of urban residents has been significantly improved. The per capita housing area of urban residents has risen from 18.70 square meters in 1998 to 32.90 square meters in 2012; and more and more urban households have their own housing. At the same time, housing prices have kept rising. Momentum, the sales price of urban residential housing in 1998 was 1854 yuan per square meter, in 2012, up to 5791 yuan per square meter, the increase of 312.35%. house prices continued to increase the value of home owned residential property with its own housing, but on the other hand, it also aggravated the pressure of housing expenditure for home buyers. The distribution of housing wealth was not evenly distributed. The "Matthew effect" of urban housing market is becoming more and more significant. Therefore, the study of the existence, difference and mechanism of the housing wealth effect will further enrich the theory of housing wealth effect, and provide a theoretical basis for the government to regulate the housing market policy, which is also beneficial to the government. We should promote coordinated economic and social development and comprehensively enhance the well-being of urban residents.
This article focuses on the following three problems: first, the existence of the wealth effect of urban household housing in China - the reduction of the family preventive savings or the household non housing consumption; second, the housing wealth effect in different housing property rights, housing access methods, age, income level, region and period is different; third, live The property of the house has the dual properties of consumer goods and investment goods, and the different attributes are different in the presence of Preventive Savings motives and liquidity constraints. The full text is divided into five parts. The first chapter is the introduction part, which mainly introduces the research background and research significance of this paper, on the basis of reviewing domestic and foreign literature, The second chapter introduces the life cycle - the sustainable income theory and the housing wealth effect theory, and deduces the mathematical model of the housing wealth effect. The third chapter, from the macro perspective, uses the annual data of 35 large and medium cities for 1998-2011 years, and uses the Panel Data model to analyze the existence of the housing wealth effect. On the basis of this, the fourth chapter analyzes the existence, difference and mechanism of the housing wealth effect from the 2010 Chinese family financial survey data from the microcosmic perspective. Finally, based on the basis of the empirical analysis, the main conclusions of this article are summarized and the corresponding policy suggestions are given.
The main conclusions are as follows: (1) at the macro level, the housing wealth effect of the 35 large and medium cities in China is weak, and the regional difference and time difference of the housing wealth effect are large. The eastern cities have the housing wealth effect, the central city crowding effect exists but not significant, the western urban housing effect is obvious; the regional economy is more and more obvious. The higher the income level of the residents, the greater the effect of the housing wealth, which shows that the "Matthew effect" of the Chinese urban housing market is becoming more and more significant. In the early period of the housing reform, there was a certain crowding effect in the urban housing market; in 2003, the housing wealth effect was gradually rising with the rapid rise of house prices, but the rapid rise of housing prices and the real estate after the financial crisis. The wealth effect of the urban housing market has declined gradually. (2) in the micro level, the wealth effect of Chinese urban household housing wealth is weak in general; with the increase of housing assets, the effect of housing wealth increases correspondingly; but it is expected that the rapid rise in house prices in the short term inhibits the wealth effect of housing. The wealth effect of Chinese urban household housing in the different housing property, the way of housing acquisition, the different ages, the income level and the regional differences. The property right and legal large property housing can produce a more significant housing wealth effect, small property housing does not have the housing wealth effect. Market access housing can be obtained. There is significant effect of housing wealth effect, but not market access, the housing wealth effect is obvious. The housing wealth effect is common in middle aged household, the wealth effect of the young household's family is not clear, and the old household owner family has obvious squeeze effect. The residential property in the economically developed area and the higher income level of the urban households The "Matthew effect" is significant in the urban housing market in China. The uneven distribution of housing wealth has further widened the gap between the rich and the poor within the eastern and western regions and the urban families. The property right and legitimate large property housing produced a more significant housing wealth effect by reducing the Preventive Savings machine. But it can not generate wealth effect by easing liquidity constraints.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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